Preseason Rankings
Towson
Colonial Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#158
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.0#309
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#168
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#158
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 16.9% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 2.3% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.2 12.0 13.4
.500 or above 79.1% 94.8% 77.5%
.500 or above in Conference 77.8% 89.6% 76.6%
Conference Champion 10.7% 20.3% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.3% 1.2%
First Four0.5% 0.9% 0.5%
First Round8.7% 16.6% 7.9%
Second Round1.4% 4.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 1.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 9.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 44 - 8
Quad 413 - 417 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 33   @ Colorado L 62-76 9%    
  Nov 09, 2023 357   @ Coppin St. W 78-67 86%    
  Nov 12, 2023 285   Robert Morris W 70-60 83%    
  Nov 16, 2023 4   Houston L 55-71 7%    
  Nov 26, 2023 333   Morgan St. W 78-64 90%    
  Dec 01, 2023 151   South Dakota St. L 67-68 48%    
  Dec 06, 2023 192   Massachusetts W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 09, 2023 292   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 72-67 66%    
  Dec 16, 2023 208   Bryant W 76-73 59%    
  Dec 22, 2023 284   Nicholls St. W 77-67 81%    
  Jan 04, 2024 311   @ Monmouth W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 06, 2024 140   UNC Wilmington W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 11, 2024 255   Stony Brook W 69-60 77%    
  Jan 13, 2024 228   @ Northeastern W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 18, 2024 80   @ College of Charleston L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 20, 2024 294   Campbell W 70-59 82%    
  Jan 25, 2024 125   Drexel W 63-62 54%    
  Jan 27, 2024 194   @ Delaware L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 01, 2024 228   Northeastern W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 03, 2024 112   @ Hofstra L 66-72 31%    
  Feb 08, 2024 194   Delaware W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 12, 2024 309   Elon W 72-60 83%    
  Feb 15, 2024 302   @ William & Mary W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 17, 2024 312   @ Hampton W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 22, 2024 311   Monmouth W 74-62 83%    
  Feb 24, 2024 80   College of Charleston L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 29, 2024 352   @ N.C. A&T W 75-65 80%    
  Mar 02, 2024 140   @ UNC Wilmington L 63-67 36%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.2 3.2 1.6 0.4 10.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.3 4.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.0 5.1 2.2 0.3 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.1 5.3 1.8 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.0 2.0 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.7 1.9 0.2 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.6 5.9 8.3 10.1 11.4 12.2 12.4 10.9 9.1 6.1 3.7 1.6 0.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.4% 1.6    1.4 0.1
16-2 85.5% 3.2    2.3 0.9 0.1
15-3 52.5% 3.2    1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 20.4% 1.9    0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.1% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 6.1 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 73.4% 53.6% 19.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 42.7%
17-1 1.6% 46.8% 36.3% 10.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 16.4%
16-2 3.7% 32.6% 30.9% 1.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.5 2.5%
15-3 6.1% 21.7% 21.5% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 4.7 0.3%
14-4 9.1% 16.6% 16.6% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.6
13-5 10.9% 11.2% 11.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.6
12-6 12.4% 8.2% 8.2% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 11.3
11-7 12.2% 5.5% 5.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 11.6
10-8 11.4% 4.0% 4.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.9
9-9 10.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.8
8-10 8.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.1
7-11 5.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.8
6-12 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.6
5-13 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.9% 8.6% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.7 91.1 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.6 23.5 26.5 23.5 23.5 2.9