IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.9	#140
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.8	#291
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.4	#161

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.4	#127

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.8%	16.7%	9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.6%	1.2%	0.2%
Average Seed	12.9	12.5	13.5

.500 or above	64.6%	78.4%	53.0%
.500 or above in Conference	83.2%	88.8%	78.5%
Conference Champion	14.9%	19.5%	11.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.3%	0.9%

First Four	1.0%	0.9%	1.1%
First Round	12.4%	16.3%	9.2%
Second Round	2.4%	3.5%	1.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	0.9%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Away) - 45.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 5
Quad 3	4 - 5	6 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 2	15 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2023	170	@ UNC Asheville	L	68-69	46%
Nov 20, 2023	154	Murray St.	W	69-68	53%
Nov 21, 2023	153	Appalachian St.	W	65-64	53%
Nov 25, 2023	159	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	67-69	44%
Nov 30, 2023	146	@ East Carolina	L	66-69	41%
Dec 02, 2023	13	@ Kentucky	L	60-76	8%
Dec 16, 2023	229	@ Georgia Southern	W	67-65	58%
Dec 21, 2023	135	@ Marshall	L	72-75	39%
Dec 30, 2023	17	@ Arkansas	L	63-78	10%
Jan 04, 2024	125	@ Drexel	L	61-65	38%
Jan 06, 2024	158	@ Towson	L	64-66	44%
Jan 11, 2024	311	Monmouth	W	74-61	87%
Jan 13, 2024	194	Delaware	W	71-65	70%
Jan 18, 2024	309	@ Elon	W	70-63	72%
Jan 20, 2024	80	College of Charleston	L	72-74	44%
Jan 25, 2024	228	@ Northeastern	W	67-65	58%
Jan 27, 2024	255	@ Stony Brook	W	66-62	63%
Feb 01, 2024	80	@ College of Charleston	L	69-77	26%
Feb 03, 2024	294	Campbell	W	71-59	84%
Feb 08, 2024	125	Drexel	W	64-62	58%
Feb 10, 2024	312	@ Hampton	W	74-67	72%
Feb 15, 2024	352	N.C. A&T	W	79-61	92%
Feb 17, 2024	309	Elon	W	73-60	86%
Feb 22, 2024	302	@ William & Mary	W	69-63	70%
Feb 26, 2024	294	@ Campbell	W	68-62	68%
Feb 29, 2024	112	Hofstra	W	69-68	54%
Mar 02, 2024	158	Towson	W	67-63	64%
Projected Record						15 - 12	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.5	2.2	4.6	4.6	2.3	0.8		14.9	1st
2nd												0.1	0.9	3.8	5.9	3.4	0.8	0.0			14.9	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	1.0	4.3	5.8	2.5	0.3					13.9	3rd
4th										0.0	0.9	4.0	5.4	2.1	0.2						12.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.2	5.0	1.9	0.1							10.9	5th
6th									0.3	2.3	4.2	1.8	0.2								8.8	6th
7th							0.0	0.1	1.6	3.4	1.7	0.2									6.9	7th
8th							0.0	1.0	2.5	1.8	0.2	0.0									5.5	8th
9th						0.0	0.5	1.9	1.7	0.2	0.0										4.3	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	1.2	1.2	0.3	0.0											3.0	10th
11th					0.1	0.6	0.9	0.3	0.0												1.9	11th
12th			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.0													1.3	12th
13th		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0														0.7	13th
14th		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0															0.3	14th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.7	2.8	4.6	6.4	8.3	10.3	12.1	12.7	12.3	10.8	8.2	5.3	2.3	0.8			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.8		0.8
17-1	99.8%	2.3		2.1	0.2
16-2	85.8%	4.6		3.3	1.2	0.1
15-3	55.8%	4.6		2.1	1.9	0.5	0.0
14-4	20.3%	2.2		0.5	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	4.1%	0.5		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1
12-6	0.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	14.9%	14.9		8.9	4.5	1.3	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.8%		70.7%	50.9%	19.8%	9.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.2		40.3%
17-1	2.3%		52.5%	45.3%	7.2%	10.9			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.1		13.1%
16-2	5.3%		38.2%	34.5%	3.7%	11.8							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0		3.3		5.7%
15-3	8.2%		27.5%	27.0%	0.5%	12.5										0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	5.9		0.7%
14-4	10.8%		18.8%	18.8%	0.0%	13.1												0.0	0.5	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0	8.8		0.0%
13-5	12.3%		14.2%	14.1%	0.0%	13.5												0.0	0.3	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.0	10.6		0.0%
12-6	12.7%		10.4%	10.4%		14.1												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.1	11.4
11-7	12.1%		7.0%	7.0%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	11.3
10-8	10.3%		3.9%	3.9%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	9.9
9-9	8.3%		2.9%	2.9%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	8.1
8-10	6.4%		1.8%	1.8%		15.9																0.0	0.1	6.3
7-11	4.6%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.1	4.5
6-12	2.8%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.8
5-13	1.7%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	1.6
4-14	0.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		12.8%	12.3%	0.6%	12.9		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	1.4	3.0	3.1	2.1	1.4	1.0	87.2		0.6%