Preseason Rankings
Drexel
Colonial Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#125
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.9#340
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#184
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#94
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 17.8% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 1.2% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.7 12.4 13.4
.500 or above 83.6% 91.4% 74.5%
.500 or above in Conference 89.0% 92.7% 84.8%
Conference Champion 17.6% 22.0% 12.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
First Round14.0% 17.5% 9.9%
Second Round2.8% 3.9% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Away) - 53.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 199   @ La Salle W 67-66 54%    
  Nov 11, 2023 189   @ Winthrop W 68-67 51%    
  Nov 14, 2023 138   Temple W 65-61 63%    
  Nov 17, 2023 257   Fairfield W 67-56 84%    
  Nov 19, 2023 224   Queens W 74-65 78%    
  Nov 26, 2023 180   @ Old Dominion L 61-62 50%    
  Nov 29, 2023 293   @ Lafayette W 63-57 72%    
  Dec 05, 2023 130   @ Princeton L 65-68 40%    
  Dec 09, 2023 63   @ West Virginia L 63-72 21%    
  Dec 16, 2023 318   Albany W 73-59 89%    
  Dec 22, 2023 208   @ Bryant W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 01, 2024 312   Hampton W 75-61 88%    
  Jan 04, 2024 140   UNC Wilmington W 65-61 62%    
  Jan 06, 2024 302   @ William & Mary W 67-60 73%    
  Jan 11, 2024 352   @ N.C. A&T W 73-61 84%    
  Jan 13, 2024 309   @ Elon W 68-60 74%    
  Jan 18, 2024 311   Monmouth W 72-58 88%    
  Jan 20, 2024 194   Delaware W 69-62 71%    
  Jan 25, 2024 158   @ Towson L 62-63 46%    
  Jan 27, 2024 352   N.C. A&T W 76-58 93%    
  Feb 01, 2024 311   @ Monmouth W 69-61 74%    
  Feb 08, 2024 140   @ UNC Wilmington L 62-64 42%    
  Feb 10, 2024 80   @ College of Charleston L 67-74 28%    
  Feb 15, 2024 112   Hofstra W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 17, 2024 294   Campbell W 69-57 84%    
  Feb 22, 2024 112   @ Hofstra L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 26, 2024 194   @ Delaware W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 29, 2024 255   Stony Brook W 67-56 81%    
  Mar 02, 2024 228   Northeastern W 68-59 77%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.5 5.1 5.3 3.1 0.9 17.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.4 6.9 4.7 1.3 0.1 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.6 6.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.0 5.8 2.3 0.2 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.7 1.9 0.2 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.8 1.7 0.2 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.6 6.9 9.2 11.8 13.5 14.0 12.7 10.3 6.7 3.2 0.9 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 97.8% 3.1    2.8 0.3
16-2 80.1% 5.3    3.8 1.4 0.1
15-3 50.1% 5.1    2.3 2.2 0.6 0.0
14-4 19.6% 2.5    0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.5% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.6% 17.6 10.5 5.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 74.3% 56.1% 18.2% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 41.4%
17-1 3.2% 52.0% 43.2% 8.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 15.4%
16-2 6.7% 36.9% 34.1% 2.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.2 4.1%
15-3 10.3% 25.2% 25.1% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.7 0.1%
14-4 12.7% 18.5% 18.5% 13.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.3
13-5 14.0% 13.1% 13.1% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 12.1
12-6 13.5% 9.2% 9.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 12.3
11-7 11.8% 6.7% 6.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 11.0
10-8 9.2% 4.3% 4.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 8.8
9-9 6.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.8
8-10 4.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.5
7-11 3.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
6-12 1.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.3% 13.6% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.6 3.4 3.7 2.6 1.4 0.6 85.7 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 98.7% 3.8 0.7 20.9 18.3 34.6 11.8 11.8 0.7