Preseason Rankings
Lafayette
Patriot League
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#293
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.7#349
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#320
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#225
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 8.6% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 30.5% 56.4% 26.7%
.500 or above in Conference 51.7% 69.0% 49.1%
Conference Champion 5.5% 10.8% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 10.9% 4.8% 11.9%
First Four1.4% 1.7% 1.3%
First Round3.6% 7.6% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Joseph's (Away) - 12.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 62 - 9
Quad 410 - 912 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 136   @ Saint Joseph's L 60-72 13%    
  Nov 10, 2023 19   @ UCLA L 51-74 2%    
  Nov 12, 2023 191   @ Pepperdine L 66-75 20%    
  Nov 24, 2023 203   @ Penn L 62-70 23%    
  Nov 25, 2023 311   Monmouth W 65-64 54%    
  Nov 26, 2023 128   Belmont L 63-72 21%    
  Nov 29, 2023 125   Drexel L 57-63 28%    
  Dec 02, 2023 157   Cornell L 69-74 34%    
  Dec 05, 2023 303   @ Columbia L 66-68 42%    
  Dec 09, 2023 199   La Salle L 64-67 41%    
  Dec 21, 2023 232   Quinnipiac L 66-67 49%    
  Dec 30, 2023 129   @ Richmond L 56-68 15%    
  Jan 03, 2024 300   Army W 67-63 62%    
  Jan 06, 2024 313   @ Boston University L 61-62 45%    
  Jan 10, 2024 110   @ Colgate L 60-74 12%    
  Jan 13, 2024 277   Navy W 62-60 58%    
  Jan 17, 2024 327   @ Holy Cross L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 20, 2024 331   Bucknell W 67-61 69%    
  Jan 24, 2024 295   @ Loyola Maryland L 62-65 41%    
  Jan 27, 2024 313   Boston University W 64-59 65%    
  Jan 31, 2024 261   American W 60-59 54%    
  Feb 03, 2024 300   @ Army L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 07, 2024 327   Holy Cross W 69-63 68%    
  Feb 10, 2024 274   @ Lehigh L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 14, 2024 295   Loyola Maryland W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 17, 2024 261   @ American L 57-62 35%    
  Feb 19, 2024 110   Colgate L 63-71 26%    
  Feb 24, 2024 274   Lehigh W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 28, 2024 277   @ Navy L 59-63 38%    
  Mar 02, 2024 331   @ Bucknell W 64-63 50%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 5.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 3.4 2.2 0.8 0.1 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.6 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.1 1.9 0.2 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 3.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.7 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.2 4.8 7.1 9.1 10.4 11.4 11.2 10.6 9.2 7.7 5.6 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 86.6% 0.8    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 62.6% 1.4    0.9 0.4 0.0
14-4 37.9% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.9% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
12-6 4.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 3.1 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 66.7% 66.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 46.3% 46.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.0% 32.8% 32.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-3 2.2% 23.6% 23.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.7
14-4 3.8% 20.1% 20.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.0
13-5 5.6% 11.3% 11.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 4.9
12-6 7.7% 7.8% 7.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 7.1
11-7 9.2% 5.4% 5.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.7
10-8 10.6% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.3
9-9 11.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.0
8-10 11.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.3
7-11 10.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.3
6-12 9.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.1
5-13 7.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.1
4-14 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.8
3-15 3.2% 3.2
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.2 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%