Preseason Rankings
Patriot League
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
110 Colgate 63.4%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 15 - 3 +3.7      +4.1 64 -0.4 188 68.7 162 0.0 1 0.0 1
261 American 7.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 8 -5.4      -3.2 275 -2.2 241 59.0 353 0.0 1 0.0 1
274 Lehigh 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 9 -6.1      -3.7 292 -2.4 250 72.5 66 0.0 1 0.0 1
277 Navy 5.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -6.3      -4.9 316 -1.4 219 62.7 314 0.0 1 0.0 1
293 Lafayette 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 9 - 9 -6.9      -5.2 320 -1.7 225 59.7 349 0.0 1 0.0 1
295 Loyola Maryland 4.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 9 -7.2      -3.8 293 -3.4 276 65.6 249 0.0 1 0.0 1
300 Army 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -7.5      -4.1 302 -3.4 277 70.5 120 0.0 1 0.0 1
313 Boston University 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 -8.5      -5.9 334 -2.6 256 64.4 277 0.0 1 0.0 1
327 Holy Cross 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 11 -9.6      -5.3 323 -4.3 305 71.3 96 0.0 1 0.0 1
331 Bucknell 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 21 7 - 11 -10.0      -5.3 322 -4.7 317 67.0 204 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 1.6 69.9 15.9 6.9 3.5 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1
American 4.6 9.1 16.5 14.8 13.5 11.2 10.0 8.5 7.1 5.7 3.7
Lehigh 5.0 7.4 14.2 13.8 12.6 11.5 10.4 9.4 8.4 7.1 5.3
Navy 5.0 6.8 13.8 13.7 12.8 11.6 10.5 9.3 8.6 7.1 5.8
Lafayette 5.4 5.5 11.6 12.5 11.7 12.1 11.3 10.5 9.6 8.6 6.7
Loyola Maryland 5.5 5.2 11.0 12.3 11.6 11.3 11.5 10.6 10.1 9.1 7.4
Army 5.6 4.7 10.2 11.1 11.6 11.7 11.3 11.0 10.5 9.7 8.3
Boston University 6.1 3.2 8.0 9.4 10.7 10.9 11.5 12.0 11.6 11.8 11.0
Holy Cross 6.6 2.1 5.8 7.6 8.8 10.1 10.9 12.2 12.9 14.3 15.3
Bucknell 6.8 1.9 5.1 6.9 8.0 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.0 15.5 16.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.5 6.9 9.8 12.8 16.0 18.1 15.8 9.8
American 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.5 10.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 9.5 7.9 6.0 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.2
Lehigh 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 3.9 5.8 7.8 9.4 10.8 11.2 10.9 10.2 8.9 6.8 4.9 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.1
Navy 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.1 5.9 7.9 9.4 10.3 11.6 11.2 10.2 8.6 6.7 4.6 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.1
Lafayette 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.2 4.8 7.1 9.1 10.4 11.4 11.2 10.6 9.2 7.7 5.6 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
Loyola Maryland 9 - 9 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.4 5.4 7.3 9.1 10.6 11.4 10.7 10.4 9.3 7.2 5.6 3.4 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1
Army 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.7 5.9 7.7 9.6 10.9 11.4 10.9 10.4 8.7 6.7 4.7 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
Boston University 8 - 10 0.4 1.2 3.0 4.9 7.2 9.1 10.6 11.5 11.3 10.5 9.4 7.7 5.5 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
Holy Cross 7 - 11 0.7 2.0 4.4 6.6 9.0 10.7 11.3 11.7 11.0 9.8 7.7 5.8 4.1 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Bucknell 7 - 11 0.8 2.3 4.7 7.3 9.7 11.4 12.3 11.4 10.6 8.9 7.2 5.1 3.7 2.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 69.9% 59.7 8.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
American 9.1% 5.6 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lehigh 7.4% 4.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Navy 6.8% 4.1 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 5.5% 3.1 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 5.2% 2.9 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Army 4.7% 2.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boston University 3.2% 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bucknell 1.9% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 63.4% 63.3% 0.1% 15   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 4.4 10.8 15.6 15.1 10.1 5.4 36.6 0.3%
American 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.2 3.1 92.5 0.0%
Lehigh 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.7 2.5 94.2 0.0%
Navy 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.6 94.5 0.0%
Lafayette 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.2 95.6 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 95.9 0.0%
Army 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 96.3 0.0%
Boston University 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 97.4 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 98.2 0.0%
Bucknell 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 98.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 63.4% 2.7% 62.3% 10.1% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
American 7.5% 1.8% 6.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 5.8% 1.5% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 5.5% 1.6% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 4.4% 1.4% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 4.1% 1.4% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 3.7% 1.2% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 2.6% 1.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.8% 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 1.5% 0.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 92.8% 0.9 7.2 92.7 0.1
2nd Round 11.4% 0.1 88.6 11.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0