Preseason Rankings
Colgate
Patriot League
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#110
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.7#162
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#64
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#188
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.4% 66.6% 53.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 14.0
.500 or above 93.2% 95.9% 84.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 98.7% 96.5%
Conference Champion 69.9% 73.2% 59.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four2.7% 2.0% 4.7%
First Round62.3% 65.8% 51.3%
Second Round10.1% 11.5% 5.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 3.2% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Brown (Home) - 75.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 33 - 34 - 7
Quad 416 - 321 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 185   Brown W 77-70 76%    
  Nov 14, 2023 75   @ Syracuse L 72-78 28%    
  Nov 17, 2023 68   Yale L 70-74 35%    
  Nov 18, 2023 195   Gardner-Webb W 73-68 68%    
  Nov 19, 2023 160   Weber St. W 71-68 61%    
  Nov 22, 2023 219   Harvard W 74-65 80%    
  Nov 29, 2023 297   Binghamton W 79-65 89%    
  Dec 02, 2023 11   @ Arizona L 74-89 10%    
  Dec 09, 2023 108   @ Vermont L 69-72 39%    
  Dec 17, 2023 21   @ Illinois L 70-82 14%    
  Dec 21, 2023 148   @ Iona L 75-76 48%    
  Dec 30, 2023 157   @ Cornell L 81-82 50%    
  Jan 03, 2024 295   Loyola Maryland W 79-65 88%    
  Jan 06, 2024 277   @ Navy W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 10, 2024 293   Lafayette W 74-60 88%    
  Jan 13, 2024 331   @ Bucknell W 78-67 81%    
  Jan 17, 2024 300   @ Army W 78-70 76%    
  Jan 20, 2024 313   Boston University W 77-62 90%    
  Jan 22, 2024 274   Lehigh W 82-69 86%    
  Jan 27, 2024 261   @ American W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 31, 2024 300   Army W 81-67 89%    
  Feb 03, 2024 277   Navy W 75-62 86%    
  Feb 07, 2024 313   @ Boston University W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 10, 2024 295   @ Loyola Maryland W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 14, 2024 327   Holy Cross W 83-67 91%    
  Feb 17, 2024 331   Bucknell W 81-64 91%    
  Feb 19, 2024 293   @ Lafayette W 71-63 74%    
  Feb 24, 2024 261   American W 74-62 84%    
  Feb 28, 2024 327   @ Holy Cross W 80-70 80%    
  Mar 02, 2024 274   @ Lehigh W 79-72 72%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.5 8.4 13.9 17.6 15.8 9.8 69.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.2 5.1 4.1 2.0 0.4 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.5 6.9 9.8 12.8 16.0 18.1 15.8 9.8 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 9.8    9.8
17-1 100.0% 15.8    15.6 0.2
16-2 97.5% 17.6    16.4 1.2 0.0
15-3 87.2% 13.9    11.2 2.7 0.1
14-4 65.3% 8.4    5.2 2.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 36.0% 3.5    1.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 12.2% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 69.9% 69.9 59.7 8.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 9.8% 90.1% 89.5% 0.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.2 2.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 1.0 6.0%
17-1 15.8% 85.4% 85.1% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.2 4.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 2.3 1.8%
16-2 18.1% 76.1% 76.1% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.9 4.0 1.4 0.1 4.3 0.0%
15-3 16.0% 66.3% 66.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.1 0.9 2.8 4.1 2.3 0.4 5.4 0.1%
14-4 12.8% 57.7% 57.7% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 2.7 0.8 5.4
13-5 9.8% 47.2% 47.2% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.1 5.2
12-6 6.9% 34.8% 34.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 4.5
11-7 4.5% 27.7% 27.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.3
10-8 2.9% 21.0% 21.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3
9-9 1.6% 17.7% 17.7% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3
8-10 0.9% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.1 0.8
7-11 0.5% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.2% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 63.4% 63.3% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 4.4 10.8 15.6 15.1 10.1 5.4 36.6 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.8 6.3 37.8 40.2 9.4 0.8 5.5