IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Bucknell
Patriot League
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-10.0	#331
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.0	#204
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.3	#322

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.7	#317

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.5%	2.7%	0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.5	15.3	15.7

.500 or above	11.9%	22.9%	7.4%
.500 or above in Conference	29.4%	40.6%	24.8%
Conference Champion	1.9%	3.3%	1.3%
Last Place in Conference	24.2%	16.5%	27.4%

First Four	0.7%	1.0%	0.5%
First Round	1.1%	2.1%	0.7%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 29.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 6	1 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 11	10 - 21

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	194	Delaware	L	67-73	29%
Nov 08, 2023	203	@ Penn	L	66-77	15%
Nov 11, 2023	258	@ Niagara	L	60-68	24%
Nov 14, 2023	199	@ La Salle	L	65-77	15%
Nov 17, 2023	3	@ Duke	L	53-83	0.3%
Nov 20, 2023	344	Southern Indiana	W	75-70	66%
Nov 22, 2023	78	@ St. Bonaventure	L	57-77	4%
Nov 25, 2023	272	@ Marist	L	63-70	27%
Nov 29, 2023	130	Princeton	L	66-75	21%
Dec 02, 2023	76	@ Penn St.	L	57-77	4%
Dec 16, 2023	182	Radford	L	64-70	29%
Dec 22, 2023	330	@ Merrimack	L	62-65	39%
Dec 30, 2023	279	St. Peter's	L	62-63	48%
Jan 03, 2024	327	Holy Cross	W	73-70	59%
Jan 06, 2024	261	American	L	64-66	44%
Jan 10, 2024	274	@ Lehigh	L	68-75	28%
Jan 13, 2024	110	Colgate	L	67-78	19%
Jan 17, 2024	313	@ Boston University	L	64-69	35%
Jan 20, 2024	293	@ Lafayette	L	61-67	31%
Jan 24, 2024	277	Navy	L	65-66	47%
Jan 27, 2024	300	@ Army	L	68-74	32%
Jan 31, 2024	295	Loyola Maryland	W	69-68	51%
Feb 03, 2024	261	@ American	L	61-69	27%
Feb 07, 2024	277	@ Navy	L	62-69	29%
Feb 10, 2024	313	Boston University	W	67-66	55%
Feb 12, 2024	274	Lehigh	L	71-72	47%
Feb 17, 2024	110	@ Colgate	L	64-81	9%
Feb 21, 2024	327	@ Holy Cross	L	70-73	39%
Feb 24, 2024	300	Army	W	71-70	51%
Feb 28, 2024	295	@ Loyola Maryland	L	65-71	32%
Mar 02, 2024	293	Lafayette	L	63-64	50%
Projected Record						10 - 21	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0		1.9	1st
2nd										0.0	0.2	0.9	1.7	1.5	0.7	0.2	0.0				5.1	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.3	1.8	2.6	1.6	0.4	0.1						6.9	3rd
4th								0.0	0.4	2.5	3.4	1.4	0.3	0.0							8.0	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	3.0	4.2	1.6	0.2	0.0								9.5	5th
6th					0.0	0.0	0.6	3.2	5.1	1.6	0.2	0.0									10.6	6th
7th					0.0	0.6	3.8	5.3	1.9	0.2	0.0										12.0	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	1.3	4.4	5.7	2.3	0.2	0.0											14.0	8th
9th		0.0	0.5	2.4	5.1	5.2	2.1	0.2	0.0												15.5	9th
10th	0.8	2.3	4.2	4.8	3.3	1.2	0.1	0.0													16.7	10th

Total	0.8	2.3	4.7	7.3	9.7	11.4	12.3	11.4	10.6	8.9	7.2	5.1	3.7	2.4	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0			Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-2	84.4%	0.2		0.2	0.0
15-3	67.2%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
14-4	40.8%	0.5		0.3	0.2	0.0
13-5	21.0%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	4.2%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.9%	1.9		1.0	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																			0.0	0.0			0.0
17-1	0.0%		28.4%	28.4%		12.6													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
16-2	0.2%		31.5%	31.5%		14.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
15-3	0.7%		17.7%	17.7%		14.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.5
14-4	1.2%		14.6%	14.6%		15.0															0.0	0.1	0.0	1.1
13-5	2.4%		10.0%	10.0%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.1
12-6	3.7%		6.2%	6.2%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.1	3.5
11-7	5.1%		3.7%	3.7%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.2	4.9
10-8	7.2%		2.5%	2.5%		15.9																0.0	0.2	7.0
9-9	8.9%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	8.8
8-10	10.6%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	10.6
7-11	11.4%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	11.4
6-12	12.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.3
5-13	11.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.4
4-14	9.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.7
3-15	7.3%																							7.3
2-16	4.7%																							4.7
1-17	2.3%																							2.3
0-18	0.8%																							0.8

Total	100%		1.5%	1.5%	0.0%	15.5													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	98.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%