Preseason Rankings
Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#258
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.0#346
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#303
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#211
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 11.7% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 48.8% 71.9% 44.2%
.500 or above in Conference 53.8% 69.3% 50.7%
Conference Champion 8.1% 13.8% 7.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.9% 4.3% 11.1%
First Four1.4% 1.5% 1.4%
First Round5.9% 10.8% 4.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Away) - 16.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 52 - 7
Quad 412 - 713 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 133   @ Notre Dame L 58-68 17%    
  Nov 11, 2023 331   Bucknell W 68-60 76%    
  Nov 25, 2023 358   @ St. Francis (PA) W 69-63 70%    
  Dec 01, 2023 279   St. Peter's W 60-56 65%    
  Dec 03, 2023 232   Quinnipiac W 68-67 55%    
  Dec 06, 2023 78   St. Bonaventure L 58-67 21%    
  Dec 16, 2023 339   NJIT W 68-59 77%    
  Dec 19, 2023 297   @ Binghamton L 63-64 47%    
  Dec 21, 2023 75   @ Syracuse L 59-74 9%    
  Dec 29, 2023 216   @ Buffalo L 67-73 32%    
  Jan 05, 2024 325   @ Manhattan W 64-63 55%    
  Jan 07, 2024 148   @ Iona L 62-71 21%    
  Jan 12, 2024 257   Fairfield W 63-60 60%    
  Jan 14, 2024 266   Siena W 66-62 62%    
  Jan 19, 2024 230   @ Rider L 61-66 36%    
  Jan 21, 2024 250   @ Mount St. Mary's L 60-63 38%    
  Jan 26, 2024 272   Marist W 64-60 63%    
  Jan 28, 2024 325   Manhattan W 67-60 73%    
  Feb 02, 2024 279   @ St. Peter's L 57-59 44%    
  Feb 06, 2024 269   Canisius W 67-63 62%    
  Feb 08, 2024 148   Iona L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 16, 2024 257   @ Fairfield L 60-63 40%    
  Feb 18, 2024 232   @ Quinnipiac L 65-70 36%    
  Feb 23, 2024 269   @ Canisius L 64-66 42%    
  Mar 01, 2024 230   Rider W 64-63 55%    
  Mar 03, 2024 250   Mount St. Mary's W 63-60 59%    
  Mar 07, 2024 266   @ Siena L 63-65 42%    
  Mar 09, 2024 272   @ Marist L 61-63 43%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.1 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 8.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.2 2.9 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.1 3.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.8 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.8 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.7 1.1 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.5 3.8 1.1 0.1 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 2.9 1.1 0.1 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.7 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.0 6.7 8.1 9.1 9.9 10.1 9.9 8.9 7.6 6.2 4.6 3.2 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 94.5% 0.9    0.8 0.1
17-3 88.3% 1.7    1.4 0.3 0.0
16-4 65.1% 2.1    1.4 0.5 0.1
15-5 38.4% 1.8    0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 16.7% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.1% 8.1 5.2 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 78.4% 78.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 50.4% 50.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-2 0.9% 45.7% 45.7% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
17-3 2.0% 34.8% 34.8% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3
16-4 3.2% 26.6% 26.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 2.3
15-5 4.6% 23.1% 23.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 3.5
14-6 6.2% 14.9% 14.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 5.2
13-7 7.6% 9.9% 9.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 6.9
12-8 8.9% 7.3% 7.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 8.3
11-9 9.9% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.5
10-10 10.1% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.8
9-11 9.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 9.7
8-12 9.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.0
7-13 8.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.1
6-14 6.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.6
5-15 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.0
4-16 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.4 93.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%