Preseason Rankings
Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#272
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.4#276
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#311
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#214
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 7.5% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 42.7% 57.3% 31.0%
.500 or above in Conference 47.1% 56.4% 39.7%
Conference Champion 6.0% 8.7% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 12.6% 8.3% 16.0%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 1.3%
First Round4.6% 6.7% 2.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Away) - 44.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 52 - 6
Quad 412 - 914 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 300   @ Army L 67-69 44%    
  Nov 11, 2023 292   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 68-70 42%    
  Nov 18, 2023 297   @ Binghamton L 65-67 44%    
  Nov 21, 2023 288   @ New Hampshire L 62-64 42%    
  Nov 25, 2023 331   Bucknell W 70-63 73%    
  Nov 29, 2023 148   @ Iona L 64-74 18%    
  Dec 03, 2023 325   Manhattan W 69-63 71%    
  Dec 09, 2023 243   @ Dartmouth L 65-70 34%    
  Dec 18, 2023 342   Maryland Eastern Shore W 70-61 77%    
  Dec 22, 2023 133   @ Notre Dame L 60-71 17%    
  Dec 30, 2023 274   Lehigh W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 07, 2024 257   @ Fairfield L 61-65 37%    
  Jan 12, 2024 232   Quinnipiac W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 14, 2024 230   Rider W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 19, 2024 250   @ Mount St. Mary's L 61-65 36%    
  Jan 21, 2024 266   Siena W 67-64 59%    
  Jan 26, 2024 258   @ Niagara L 60-64 37%    
  Jan 28, 2024 269   @ Canisius L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 02, 2024 250   Mount St. Mary's W 64-62 56%    
  Feb 04, 2024 279   St. Peter's W 61-58 61%    
  Feb 08, 2024 266   @ Siena L 64-67 40%    
  Feb 10, 2024 230   @ Rider L 63-69 33%    
  Feb 16, 2024 269   Canisius W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 23, 2024 325   @ Manhattan W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 25, 2024 279   @ St. Peter's L 58-61 42%    
  Mar 01, 2024 257   Fairfield W 64-62 57%    
  Mar 03, 2024 148   Iona L 67-71 36%    
  Mar 07, 2024 232   @ Quinnipiac L 67-72 33%    
  Mar 09, 2024 258   Niagara W 63-61 57%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 6.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.5 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.9 3.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.9 3.9 1.2 0.1 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.5 3.3 1.1 0.1 9.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.2 2.5 0.9 0.1 9.6 10th
11th 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 8.2 11th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.7 4.5 6.3 7.6 9.2 10.2 10.1 10.3 9.2 8.0 6.7 5.0 3.6 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 99.2% 0.6    0.5 0.0
17-3 87.2% 1.2    0.9 0.2 0.0
16-4 69.1% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 40.3% 1.5    0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 14.9% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 77.5% 77.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 55.2% 55.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.6% 46.9% 46.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.3% 33.2% 33.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
16-4 2.1% 29.2% 29.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.5
15-5 3.6% 21.5% 21.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.8
14-6 5.0% 14.7% 14.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 4.3
13-7 6.7% 10.4% 10.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 6.0
12-8 8.0% 6.7% 6.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 7.5
11-9 9.2% 4.4% 4.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.8
10-10 10.3% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.0
9-11 10.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.9
8-12 10.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.1
7-13 9.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.1
6-14 7.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.6
5-15 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
4-16 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
3-17 2.7% 2.7
2-18 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.2 94.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%