Preseason Rankings
Penn
Ivy League
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#203
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.5#186
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#156
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#242
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 6.5% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.7
.500 or above 43.4% 47.4% 19.8%
.500 or above in Conference 49.7% 52.3% 34.3%
Conference Champion 6.9% 7.5% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 13.0% 11.5% 21.8%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round5.6% 6.1% 2.5%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 85.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 43 - 11
Quad 49 - 312 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 331   Bucknell W 77-66 85%    
  Nov 10, 2023 136   @ Saint Joseph's L 71-78 26%    
  Nov 13, 2023 20   Villanova L 63-75 14%    
  Nov 18, 2023 342   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 73-66 73%    
  Nov 24, 2023 293   Lafayette W 70-62 77%    
  Nov 25, 2023 128   Belmont L 74-75 46%    
  Nov 26, 2023 311   Monmouth W 76-67 80%    
  Dec 09, 2023 13   Kentucky L 63-80 7%    
  Dec 11, 2023 247   Howard W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 23, 2023 230   @ Rider L 70-71 45%    
  Dec 30, 2023 4   @ Houston L 56-78 3%    
  Jan 02, 2024 23   @ Auburn L 64-82 6%    
  Jan 06, 2024 243   Dartmouth W 76-70 68%    
  Jan 15, 2024 157   @ Cornell L 76-82 32%    
  Jan 20, 2024 219   Harvard W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 27, 2024 303   @ Columbia W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 02, 2024 185   @ Brown L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 03, 2024 68   @ Yale L 64-77 14%    
  Feb 10, 2024 130   @ Princeton L 69-76 28%    
  Feb 16, 2024 68   Yale L 67-74 29%    
  Feb 17, 2024 185   Brown W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 23, 2024 243   @ Dartmouth L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 24, 2024 219   @ Harvard L 67-69 43%    
  Mar 01, 2024 157   Cornell W 80-79 52%    
  Mar 02, 2024 303   Columbia W 79-70 76%    
  Mar 09, 2024 130   Princeton L 72-73 46%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 7 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.3 1.9 0.8 0.2 6.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.1 4.4 1.9 0.2 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 6.2 4.7 1.1 0.1 15.0 3rd
4th 0.2 3.4 7.3 4.1 0.6 0.0 15.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.1 7.6 3.5 0.4 16.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.9 2.9 0.2 0.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.0 4.7 1.7 0.1 12.0 7th
8th 0.4 1.7 2.7 2.1 0.6 0.0 7.6 8th
Total 0.4 1.8 4.0 7.0 9.9 13.0 14.2 13.8 12.0 9.8 6.8 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
13-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
12-2 88.2% 1.9    1.4 0.5 0.0
11-3 54.5% 2.3    1.1 1.0 0.2
10-4 19.8% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
9-5 3.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 3.8 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.2% 57.1% 49.1% 8.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.7%
13-1 0.8% 45.8% 41.0% 4.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 8.1%
12-2 2.1% 32.4% 31.5% 0.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 1.3%
11-3 4.2% 21.8% 21.7% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.1%
10-4 6.8% 13.6% 13.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.9
9-5 9.8% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 8.8 0.0%
8-6 12.0% 6.5% 6.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 11.2
7-7 13.8% 4.2% 4.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 13.2
6-8 14.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 13.9
5-9 13.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.8
4-10 9.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.8
3-11 7.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.0
2-12 4.0% 4.0
1-13 1.8% 1.8
0-14 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 6.0% 5.9% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 94.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%