Preseason Rankings
Villanova
Big East
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#20
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.4#334
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#21
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#32
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.4%
#1 Seed 6.2% 6.4% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 13.6% 13.9% 2.4%
Top 4 Seed 28.7% 29.1% 8.2%
Top 6 Seed 42.8% 43.3% 17.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.5% 69.2% 38.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.2% 64.9% 34.3%
Average Seed 5.6 5.5 7.2
.500 or above 84.4% 85.1% 55.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.9% 75.4% 51.0%
Conference Champion 13.8% 14.0% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.9% 6.4%
First Four4.2% 4.1% 5.5%
First Round66.6% 67.3% 35.5%
Second Round47.9% 48.5% 22.5%
Sweet Sixteen25.8% 26.2% 8.6%
Elite Eight12.8% 13.0% 3.6%
Final Four6.3% 6.4% 1.5%
Championship Game3.1% 3.1% 0.6%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.4%

Next Game: American (Home) - 97.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 25 - 210 - 9
Quad 35 - 115 - 10
Quad 43 - 018 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 261   American W 74-52 98%    
  Nov 10, 2023 362   Le Moyne W 85-49 100.0%   
  Nov 13, 2023 203   @ Penn W 75-63 86%    
  Nov 17, 2023 29   Maryland W 67-63 64%    
  Nov 22, 2023 41   Texas Tech W 68-66 58%    
  Nov 29, 2023 136   Saint Joseph's W 77-63 90%    
  Dec 05, 2023 32   @ Kansas St. L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 09, 2023 19   UCLA W 67-64 60%    
  Dec 20, 2023 8   @ Creighton L 66-72 31%    
  Dec 23, 2023 109   @ DePaul W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 03, 2024 43   Xavier W 75-69 68%    
  Jan 06, 2024 44   St. John's W 78-72 69%    
  Jan 12, 2024 109   DePaul W 76-64 85%    
  Jan 15, 2024 9   @ Marquette L 68-73 32%    
  Jan 20, 2024 6   Connecticut L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 24, 2024 44   @ St. John's L 74-75 50%    
  Jan 27, 2024 88   @ Butler W 67-63 65%    
  Jan 30, 2024 9   Marquette W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 04, 2024 46   Providence W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 07, 2024 43   @ Xavier L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 11, 2024 66   Seton Hall W 69-61 75%    
  Feb 16, 2024 106   @ Georgetown W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 20, 2024 88   Butler W 70-60 80%    
  Feb 24, 2024 6   @ Connecticut L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 27, 2024 106   Georgetown W 77-65 84%    
  Mar 02, 2024 46   @ Providence W 69-68 50%    
  Mar 06, 2024 66   @ Seton Hall W 66-64 57%    
  Mar 09, 2024 8   Creighton W 69-68 50%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.5 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.2 13.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.9 4.7 2.8 1.0 0.1 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.4 5.0 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 3.2 5.0 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 4.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 2.9 4.5 6.3 7.8 9.2 10.5 10.8 10.9 9.8 8.8 6.6 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.0
18-2 93.9% 2.3    2.0 0.3 0.0
17-3 78.2% 3.6    2.7 0.9 0.0
16-4 53.1% 3.5    1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 24.9% 2.2    0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.8% 13.8 8.8 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 54.2% 45.8% 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.2% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.5% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.5% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 1.9 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.6% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 2.5 1.3 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.8% 99.8% 18.1% 81.7% 3.5 0.6 1.6 2.5 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 9.8% 99.5% 15.8% 83.7% 4.7 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.3 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-7 10.9% 96.9% 12.6% 84.2% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.4%
12-8 10.8% 89.2% 10.0% 79.3% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.2 88.0%
11-9 10.5% 74.3% 7.6% 66.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 72.2%
10-10 9.2% 50.9% 5.9% 45.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 47.8%
9-11 7.8% 21.0% 4.6% 16.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1 17.2%
8-12 6.3% 7.8% 3.9% 3.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.8 4.1%
7-13 4.5% 2.6% 2.5% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.4 0.1%
6-14 2.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
5-15 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 1.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-17 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 68.5% 12.0% 56.5% 5.6 6.2 7.4 7.7 7.3 7.2 6.9 6.4 5.6 4.6 4.4 3.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 31.5 64.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 82.3 17.7