Preseason Rankings
Marquette
Big East
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.6#9
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.4#121
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.6#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.6% 3.6% 0.1%
#1 Seed 14.0% 14.1% 2.7%
Top 2 Seed 26.7% 27.0% 6.0%
Top 4 Seed 47.1% 47.7% 14.1%
Top 6 Seed 62.4% 63.0% 29.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.0% 84.4% 60.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.5% 81.0% 56.2%
Average Seed 4.5 4.5 6.7
.500 or above 92.8% 93.1% 75.8%
.500 or above in Conference 87.8% 88.1% 73.6%
Conference Champion 25.7% 25.9% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.7% 2.8%
First Four2.9% 2.8% 6.8%
First Round82.7% 83.1% 56.5%
Second Round65.1% 65.6% 38.1%
Sweet Sixteen40.0% 40.4% 19.3%
Elite Eight22.5% 22.8% 7.9%
Final Four11.8% 11.9% 3.7%
Championship Game6.3% 6.3% 1.7%
National Champion3.3% 3.4% 1.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 98.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 6
Quad 25 - 211 - 8
Quad 35 - 016 - 8
Quad 45 - 021 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 240   Northern Illinois W 87-64 98%    
  Nov 10, 2023 230   Rider W 83-61 98%    
  Nov 14, 2023 21   @ Illinois L 76-77 48%    
  Nov 20, 2023 19   UCLA W 72-70 58%    
  Nov 28, 2023 321   Southern W 90-62 99%    
  Dec 02, 2023 28   @ Wisconsin W 68-67 51%    
  Dec 06, 2023 15   Texas W 77-73 65%    
  Dec 09, 2023 133   Notre Dame W 80-64 92%    
  Dec 14, 2023 276   St. Thomas W 87-62 98%    
  Dec 19, 2023 46   @ Providence W 76-73 59%    
  Dec 22, 2023 106   Georgetown W 85-70 90%    
  Dec 30, 2023 8   Creighton W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 06, 2024 66   @ Seton Hall W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 10, 2024 88   Butler W 77-64 86%    
  Jan 15, 2024 20   Villanova W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 20, 2024 44   @ St. John's W 83-81 58%    
  Jan 24, 2024 109   @ DePaul W 81-72 77%    
  Jan 27, 2024 66   Seton Hall W 76-66 81%    
  Jan 30, 2024 20   @ Villanova L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 03, 2024 106   @ Georgetown W 82-73 76%    
  Feb 10, 2024 44   St. John's W 86-78 75%    
  Feb 13, 2024 88   @ Butler W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 17, 2024 6   @ Connecticut L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 21, 2024 109   DePaul W 84-69 89%    
  Feb 25, 2024 43   Xavier W 83-75 75%    
  Feb 28, 2024 46   Providence W 79-70 76%    
  Mar 02, 2024 8   @ Creighton L 74-77 39%    
  Mar 06, 2024 6   Connecticut W 75-73 57%    
  Mar 09, 2024 43   @ Xavier W 80-78 57%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 5.5 6.9 5.4 3.1 0.8 25.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.9 6.4 4.5 1.8 0.2 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.2 5.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.5 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.0 4.6 6.5 8.0 9.8 11.2 12.1 11.6 10.4 8.7 5.7 3.1 0.8 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 100.0% 3.1    3.0 0.1
18-2 95.7% 5.4    4.8 0.6
17-3 78.6% 6.9    5.0 1.7 0.1
16-4 52.6% 5.5    3.1 2.0 0.4 0.0
15-5 25.9% 3.0    1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.8% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.7% 25.7 18.0 6.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 100.0% 55.2% 44.8% 1.1 0.7 0.1 100.0%
19-1 3.1% 100.0% 45.7% 54.3% 1.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.7% 100.0% 37.1% 62.9% 1.4 3.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 8.7% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 1.8 3.7 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.4% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 2.5 2.2 3.7 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.6% 99.9% 20.5% 79.4% 3.4 0.9 2.4 3.5 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 12.1% 99.4% 17.1% 82.2% 4.5 0.2 0.9 2.4 2.8 2.4 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
13-7 11.2% 98.2% 13.9% 84.2% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 97.9%
12-8 9.8% 91.7% 11.2% 80.5% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.8 90.6%
11-9 8.0% 77.6% 8.7% 68.9% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 75.5%
10-10 6.5% 57.9% 7.3% 50.5% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 54.5%
9-11 4.6% 30.1% 6.3% 23.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 25.4%
8-12 3.0% 9.8% 3.6% 6.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 6.5%
7-13 2.1% 4.1% 3.3% 0.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.9%
6-14 1.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-15 0.7% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-16 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-17 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 84.0% 18.0% 66.0% 4.5 14.0 12.7 11.1 9.2 8.3 7.0 6.1 5.0 3.9 3.6 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 16.0 80.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 92.0 8.0