Preseason Rankings
Wisconsin
Big Ten
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#28
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.5#343
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#58
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 5.0% 5.3% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 11.4% 11.9% 2.3%
Top 4 Seed 25.7% 26.8% 7.1%
Top 6 Seed 39.7% 41.2% 15.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.9% 65.6% 36.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.8% 62.5% 33.0%
Average Seed 5.7 5.6 7.3
.500 or above 76.7% 78.5% 47.1%
.500 or above in Conference 63.1% 64.5% 40.2%
Conference Champion 7.8% 8.1% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 3.4% 10.5%
First Four4.6% 4.5% 5.2%
First Round61.7% 63.4% 34.0%
Second Round43.4% 44.8% 20.7%
Sweet Sixteen22.3% 23.1% 9.4%
Elite Eight10.8% 11.3% 3.0%
Final Four5.2% 5.4% 1.3%
Championship Game2.4% 2.5% 0.7%
National Champion1.0% 1.1% 0.3%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 94.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 12
Quad 33 - 113 - 12
Quad 44 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 198   Arkansas St. W 69-52 94%    
  Nov 10, 2023 7   Tennessee L 60-61 47%    
  Nov 14, 2023 46   @ Providence L 65-66 48%    
  Nov 17, 2023 285   Robert Morris W 73-51 98%    
  Nov 20, 2023 34   Virginia W 58-57 53%    
  Nov 27, 2023 317   Western Illinois W 77-53 98%    
  Dec 02, 2023 9   Marquette L 67-68 49%    
  Dec 05, 2023 5   @ Michigan St. L 59-66 26%    
  Dec 09, 2023 11   @ Arizona L 69-75 30%    
  Dec 14, 2023 221   Jacksonville St. W 72-54 94%    
  Dec 22, 2023 324   Chicago St. W 76-51 98%    
  Jan 02, 2024 42   Iowa W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 06, 2024 67   Nebraska W 68-61 74%    
  Jan 10, 2024 38   @ Ohio St. L 64-66 44%    
  Jan 13, 2024 47   Northwestern W 64-59 68%    
  Jan 16, 2024 76   @ Penn St. W 64-61 58%    
  Jan 19, 2024 39   Indiana W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 23, 2024 113   @ Minnesota W 66-60 69%    
  Jan 26, 2024 5   Michigan St. L 62-63 46%    
  Feb 01, 2024 67   @ Nebraska W 65-64 55%    
  Feb 04, 2024 2   Purdue L 61-64 40%    
  Feb 07, 2024 48   @ Michigan L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 10, 2024 51   @ Rutgers L 61-62 49%    
  Feb 13, 2024 38   Ohio St. W 67-63 64%    
  Feb 17, 2024 42   @ Iowa L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 20, 2024 29   Maryland W 63-60 60%    
  Feb 27, 2024 39   @ Indiana L 64-66 45%    
  Mar 02, 2024 21   Illinois W 68-66 57%    
  Mar 07, 2024 51   Rutgers W 64-58 69%    
  Mar 10, 2024 2   @ Purdue L 58-67 23%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.0 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 7.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 3.2 1.9 0.5 0.1 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.8 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 3.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.3 0.8 0.1 5.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.4 5.0 6.7 8.0 9.4 10.2 10.8 10.3 9.2 7.6 6.1 4.3 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 93.0% 1.2    1.0 0.1 0.0
17-3 78.8% 2.1    1.5 0.6 0.0
16-4 47.7% 2.0    1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 21.3% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.5% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 4.7 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 32.9% 67.1% 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.3% 100.0% 26.0% 74.0% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.7% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.3% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 2.1 1.2 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.1% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 2.9 0.7 1.8 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.6% 99.9% 12.8% 87.1% 3.8 0.3 1.1 2.1 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 9.2% 99.6% 9.9% 89.7% 4.9 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-8 10.3% 97.0% 8.2% 88.8% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.7%
11-9 10.8% 89.6% 6.8% 82.9% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 88.9%
10-10 10.2% 70.4% 6.0% 64.4% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 68.5%
9-11 9.4% 38.7% 3.6% 35.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 36.4%
8-12 8.0% 13.9% 3.6% 10.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.9 10.7%
7-13 6.7% 5.1% 3.3% 1.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.3 1.8%
6-14 5.0% 1.9% 1.9% 0.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.9 0.1%
5-15 3.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
4-16 2.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.3
3-17 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-18 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 63.9% 8.0% 55.9% 5.7 5.0 6.3 7.5 6.8 7.0 7.1 6.3 5.0 3.8 4.1 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 36.1 60.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 98.5 1.5