Preseason Rankings
Purdue
Big Ten
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.5#2
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.9#330
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 10.2% 10.4% 3.4%
#1 Seed 32.0% 32.5% 10.0%
Top 2 Seed 52.2% 53.0% 21.3%
Top 4 Seed 73.4% 74.1% 42.8%
Top 6 Seed 83.9% 84.5% 58.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.2% 94.5% 81.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.5% 92.9% 78.6%
Average Seed 3.1 3.1 4.8
.500 or above 96.9% 97.2% 87.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 93.9% 83.2%
Conference Champion 39.7% 40.1% 21.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four1.5% 1.4% 3.0%
First Round93.5% 93.9% 80.2%
Second Round82.4% 82.9% 63.2%
Sweet Sixteen58.4% 58.9% 39.4%
Elite Eight37.6% 38.0% 20.4%
Final Four22.8% 23.1% 9.2%
Championship Game13.5% 13.7% 3.8%
National Champion7.9% 8.1% 1.9%

Next Game: Samford (Home) - 97.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 5
Quad 26 - 114 - 6
Quad 34 - 018 - 7
Quad 44 - 022 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 165   Samford W 81-60 98%    
  Nov 10, 2023 220   Morehead St. W 75-51 99%    
  Nov 13, 2023 43   Xavier W 78-67 84%    
  Nov 20, 2023 10   Gonzaga W 76-73 61%    
  Nov 28, 2023 222   Texas Southern W 82-57 99%    
  Dec 01, 2023 47   @ Northwestern W 67-62 69%    
  Dec 03, 2023 42   Iowa W 80-69 83%    
  Dec 09, 2023 12   Alabama W 75-72 62%    
  Dec 16, 2023 11   Arizona W 77-74 61%    
  Dec 21, 2023 246   Jacksonville W 73-47 99%    
  Dec 29, 2023 134   Eastern Kentucky W 82-63 95%    
  Jan 02, 2024 29   @ Maryland W 67-64 60%    
  Jan 05, 2024 21   Illinois W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 09, 2024 67   @ Nebraska W 72-64 73%    
  Jan 13, 2024 76   Penn St. W 73-58 89%    
  Jan 16, 2024 39   @ Indiana W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 20, 2024 42   @ Iowa W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 23, 2024 48   Michigan W 75-63 84%    
  Jan 28, 2024 51   @ Rutgers W 67-61 69%    
  Jan 31, 2024 47   Northwestern W 70-59 83%    
  Feb 04, 2024 28   @ Wisconsin W 64-61 60%    
  Feb 10, 2024 39   Indiana W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 15, 2024 113   Minnesota W 75-57 93%    
  Feb 18, 2024 38   @ Ohio St. W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 22, 2024 51   Rutgers W 70-58 84%    
  Feb 25, 2024 48   @ Michigan W 72-66 68%    
  Mar 02, 2024 5   Michigan St. W 68-63 65%    
  Mar 05, 2024 21   @ Illinois W 72-70 58%    
  Mar 10, 2024 28   Wisconsin W 67-58 77%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 7.0 9.9 9.2 6.3 2.9 39.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.1 6.2 5.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.1 0.2 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.7 4.1 5.6 7.3 9.1 11.1 12.3 12.7 12.5 9.8 6.3 2.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
19-1 99.3% 6.3    6.1 0.2
18-2 94.4% 9.2    8.0 1.2 0.0
17-3 79.5% 9.9    7.3 2.5 0.2
16-4 55.0% 7.0    3.9 2.6 0.5 0.0
15-5 27.3% 3.4    1.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 39.7% 39.7 29.4 8.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.9% 100.0% 53.4% 46.6% 1.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 6.3% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 1.1 5.5 0.8 0.0 100.0%
18-2 9.8% 100.0% 36.0% 64.0% 1.3 7.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 12.5% 100.0% 29.7% 70.3% 1.4 7.7 4.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 12.7% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 1.8 5.1 5.0 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.3% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 2.4 2.5 4.6 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.1% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 3.3 0.9 2.4 3.4 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.1% 99.6% 14.4% 85.2% 4.3 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.5 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-8 7.3% 98.6% 13.0% 85.7% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.4%
11-9 5.6% 93.8% 9.3% 84.5% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 93.1%
10-10 4.1% 80.7% 6.9% 73.8% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 79.3%
9-11 2.7% 50.0% 6.9% 43.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 46.3%
8-12 1.6% 22.4% 5.8% 16.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 17.6%
7-13 1.1% 6.5% 4.0% 2.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.6%
6-14 0.5% 2.9% 2.1% 0.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8%
5-15 0.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.2% 22.5% 71.7% 3.1 32.0 20.3 12.4 8.8 6.0 4.5 3.4 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.8 92.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 1.1 92.0 8.0 0.0