Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#246
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace56.3#360
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#319
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#155
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 9.0% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.6 14.7
.500 or above 30.3% 64.0% 28.7%
.500 or above in Conference 43.4% 65.9% 42.3%
Conference Champion 4.3% 10.4% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 4.1% 11.5%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 0.9%
First Round3.4% 8.7% 3.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 4.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 49 - 611 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 43   @ Xavier L 57-75 4%    
  Nov 14, 2023 229   Georgia Southern W 61-59 57%    
  Nov 17, 2023 69   @ Pittsburgh L 55-70 8%    
  Nov 24, 2023 285   @ Robert Morris L 59-60 46%    
  Nov 25, 2023 314   Fairleigh Dickinson W 67-63 63%    
  Nov 29, 2023 294   Campbell W 61-56 68%    
  Dec 02, 2023 229   @ Georgia Southern L 58-62 36%    
  Dec 06, 2023 81   @ Central Florida L 51-65 11%    
  Dec 11, 2023 345   @ South Carolina St. W 69-65 64%    
  Dec 18, 2023 287   Louisiana Monroe W 62-57 67%    
  Dec 21, 2023 2   @ Purdue L 47-73 1%    
  Jan 04, 2024 159   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 58-66 24%    
  Jan 06, 2024 207   @ Stetson L 59-65 31%    
  Jan 12, 2024 280   @ North Florida L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 18, 2024 224   Queens W 66-64 55%    
  Jan 20, 2024 204   Kennesaw St. W 63-62 51%    
  Jan 25, 2024 134   @ Eastern Kentucky L 61-71 21%    
  Jan 27, 2024 215   @ Bellarmine L 55-60 34%    
  Jan 31, 2024 236   Austin Peay W 61-59 57%    
  Feb 03, 2024 184   @ Lipscomb L 61-68 29%    
  Feb 08, 2024 336   Central Arkansas W 72-63 77%    
  Feb 10, 2024 223   North Alabama W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 14, 2024 204   @ Kennesaw St. L 59-65 32%    
  Feb 16, 2024 224   @ Queens L 63-67 36%    
  Feb 23, 2024 280   North Florida W 67-62 65%    
  Feb 28, 2024 207   Stetson W 63-62 51%    
  Mar 01, 2024 159   Florida Gulf Coast L 61-63 42%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 4.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 2.9 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.1 0.7 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.3 2.9 4.2 1.0 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.2 5.2 1.8 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.2 2.8 0.2 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.6 4.1 0.5 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.2 4.5 0.9 0.0 10.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.6 4.4 1.5 0.0 10.5 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 3.3 3.6 1.3 0.1 9.9 11th
12th 0.4 1.4 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.4 12th
Total 0.4 1.6 3.5 6.0 8.9 11.1 12.4 12.6 12.0 10.3 8.0 5.9 3.8 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 99.6% 0.4    0.3 0.0
14-2 88.5% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
13-3 64.6% 1.3    0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-4 31.5% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1
11-5 8.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 74.5% 58.5% 16.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.5%
15-1 0.4% 42.5% 41.4% 1.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9%
14-2 1.0% 26.1% 26.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-3 2.1% 21.3% 21.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6
12-4 3.8% 16.6% 16.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.2
11-5 5.9% 9.2% 9.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.4
10-6 8.0% 6.6% 6.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 7.4
9-7 10.3% 4.4% 4.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9.8
8-8 12.0% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 11.6
7-9 12.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.4
6-10 12.4% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.3
5-11 11.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.0
4-12 8.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.9
3-13 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
2-14 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
1-15 1.6% 1.6
0-16 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2 96.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%