IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.4	#280
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.8	#135
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.6	#204

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.7	#340

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.4%	3.3%	1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	14.7	15.2

.500 or above	23.8%	34.5%	13.0%
.500 or above in Conference	30.5%	38.1%	22.9%
Conference Champion	2.3%	3.4%	1.2%
Last Place in Conference	18.1%	13.2%	23.1%

First Four	0.7%	0.8%	0.6%
First Round	2.0%	2.9%	1.1%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 6
Quad 3	1 - 5	2 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 6	11 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2023	328	@ Charleston Southern	W	74-73	50%
Nov 13, 2023	345	@ South Carolina St.	W	82-80	59%
Nov 16, 2023	322	Presbyterian	W	73-67	69%
Nov 17, 2023	337	Northwestern St.	W	77-70	75%
Nov 18, 2023	264	Maine	W	73-71	58%
Nov 24, 2023	56	@ LSU	L	63-82	5%
Nov 29, 2023	42	@ Iowa	L	71-91	4%
Dec 02, 2023	278	High Point	W	82-79	60%
Dec 09, 2023	229	Georgia Southern	W	72-71	50%
Dec 19, 2023	85	@ Florida St.	L	70-85	9%
Dec 22, 2023	73	@ Georgia	L	66-83	8%
Dec 29, 2023	30	@ Miami (FL)	L	68-89	4%
Jan 04, 2024	207	@ Stetson	L	71-78	26%
Jan 06, 2024	159	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	69-79	20%
Jan 12, 2024	246	Jacksonville	W	65-64	54%
Jan 18, 2024	204	Kennesaw St.	L	75-76	46%
Jan 20, 2024	224	Queens	L	78-79	49%
Jan 25, 2024	215	@ Bellarmine	L	66-73	28%
Jan 27, 2024	134	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	74-85	17%
Jan 31, 2024	184	Lipscomb	L	76-79	41%
Feb 03, 2024	236	@ Austin Peay	L	69-74	32%
Feb 08, 2024	223	North Alabama	L	76-77	49%
Feb 10, 2024	336	Central Arkansas	W	85-78	73%
Feb 14, 2024	224	@ Queens	L	76-82	30%
Feb 16, 2024	204	@ Kennesaw St.	L	72-79	27%
Feb 23, 2024	246	@ Jacksonville	L	62-67	35%
Feb 28, 2024	159	Florida Gulf Coast	L	72-76	37%
Mar 01, 2024	207	Stetson	L	74-75	46%
Projected Record						11 - 17	6 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0		2.3	1st
2nd										0.0	0.6	1.4	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0			3.5	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.7	2.1	1.5	0.3	0.0					4.6	3rd
4th								0.0	0.4	2.6	2.1	0.3	0.0						5.5	4th
5th								0.3	2.4	3.1	0.7	0.0							6.5	5th
6th						0.0	0.1	2.0	4.2	1.3	0.1								7.6	6th
7th						0.1	1.5	4.8	2.4	0.1	0.0								9.0	7th
8th					0.0	1.2	5.0	3.8	0.4	0.0									10.4	8th
9th				0.1	1.2	4.9	4.5	1.0	0.0										11.6	9th
10th			0.1	1.3	4.9	5.6	1.5	0.1											13.3	10th
11th		0.4	2.4	4.9	5.0	1.7	0.1												14.5	11th
12th	0.9	2.6	3.9	2.9	1.0	0.1													11.2	12th

Total	0.9	3.0	6.3	9.1	12.0	13.5	12.7	11.9	9.8	7.8	5.5	3.5	2.1	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-1	97.5%	0.1		0.1	0.0
14-2	88.8%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
13-3	68.1%	0.8		0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-4	31.2%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-5	7.6%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.6%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.1%	0.0						0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	2.3%	2.3		1.2	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.0%		58.6%	58.6%		11.8												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0
15-1	0.1%		52.9%	50.4%	2.5%	12.7												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		5.1%
14-2	0.5%		26.0%	26.0%		13.2												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.4
13-3	1.1%		20.8%	20.8%		13.7													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.9
12-4	2.1%		12.7%	12.7%		14.1													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.8
11-5	3.5%		10.2%	10.2%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	3.1
10-6	5.5%		4.8%	4.8%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	5.2
9-7	7.8%		4.4%	4.4%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	7.5
8-8	9.8%		2.3%	2.3%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	9.6
7-9	11.9%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																0.0	0.2	11.7
6-10	12.7%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	12.6
5-11	13.5%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	13.5
4-12	12.0%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	12.0
3-13	9.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.1
2-14	6.3%																							6.3
1-15	3.0%																							3.0
0-16	0.9%																							0.9

Total	100%		2.4%	2.3%	0.0%	14.8												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.9	97.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%