Preseason Rankings
LSU
Southeastern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#56
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.0#266
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#52
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#58
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.6% 2.6% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 7.2% 7.2% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 13.9% 13.9% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.8% 35.8% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 33.0% 33.0% 8.0%
Average Seed 7.2 7.2 8.3
.500 or above 68.3% 68.3% 34.6%
.500 or above in Conference 42.1% 42.1% 22.1%
Conference Champion 3.4% 3.5% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 11.0% 27.2%
First Four4.0% 4.0% 2.2%
First Round33.8% 33.9% 7.7%
Second Round20.2% 20.2% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen8.7% 8.7% 1.8%
Elite Eight3.9% 3.9% 0.0%
Final Four1.6% 1.7% 0.0%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 24 - 37 - 11
Quad 33 - 110 - 12
Quad 47 - 017 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 82-52 99.8%   
  Nov 10, 2023 284   Nicholls St. W 83-64 96%    
  Nov 16, 2023 72   Dayton W 64-62 57%    
  Nov 24, 2023 280   North Florida W 82-63 95%    
  Nov 28, 2023 75   @ Syracuse L 70-71 47%    
  Dec 01, 2023 268   SE Louisiana W 82-64 95%    
  Dec 09, 2023 32   Kansas St. W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 13, 2023 353   Alabama St. W 80-55 99%    
  Dec 16, 2023 15   Texas L 68-73 33%    
  Dec 21, 2023 341   Lamar W 80-56 98%    
  Dec 29, 2023 337   Northwestern St. W 80-57 98%    
  Jan 06, 2024 22   @ Texas A&M L 65-72 28%    
  Jan 09, 2024 87   Vanderbilt W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 13, 2024 23   @ Auburn L 66-73 28%    
  Jan 17, 2024 60   Mississippi W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 20, 2024 22   Texas A&M L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 24, 2024 73   @ Georgia L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 27, 2024 12   @ Alabama L 71-80 23%    
  Feb 03, 2024 17   Arkansas L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 07, 2024 7   @ Tennessee L 60-70 20%    
  Feb 10, 2024 12   Alabama L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 13, 2024 36   @ Florida L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 17, 2024 89   @ South Carolina W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 21, 2024 13   Kentucky L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 24, 2024 37   Mississippi St. W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 27, 2024 73   Georgia W 72-67 65%    
  Mar 02, 2024 87   @ Vanderbilt W 70-69 52%    
  Mar 06, 2024 17   @ Arkansas L 67-75 26%    
  Mar 09, 2024 52   Missouri W 75-72 59%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.3 0.8 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.1 4.3 1.4 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.6 0.6 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.0 1.0 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.0 1.6 0.1 8.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.0 1.8 0.2 8.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.0 13th
14th 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.6 14th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.8 6.8 9.4 10.2 11.2 11.5 10.8 9.0 7.7 5.7 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 97.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 94.1% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 73.2% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 37.3% 0.9    0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 32.3% 67.7% 1.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.6% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 1.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.4% 100.0% 16.6% 83.4% 2.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.5% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.1% 99.4% 11.1% 88.3% 4.8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
12-6 5.7% 96.4% 8.0% 88.3% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.1%
11-7 7.7% 89.0% 6.0% 82.9% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 88.3%
10-8 9.0% 71.0% 5.4% 65.7% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.6 69.4%
9-9 10.8% 45.8% 4.2% 41.6% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.8 43.4%
8-10 11.5% 19.2% 3.6% 15.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 16.2%
7-11 11.2% 5.2% 2.3% 2.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 3.0%
6-12 10.2% 2.0% 1.7% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.0 0.2%
5-13 9.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.3
4-14 6.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.7
3-15 4.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.8
2-16 2.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.6
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 35.8% 4.2% 31.6% 7.2 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 4.3 4.6 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 64.2 33.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 91.7 8.3