Preseason Rankings
Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#37
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.3#336
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#94
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#9
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.8% 3.8% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 6.4% 8.6% 2.8%
Top 4 Seed 15.7% 20.5% 8.0%
Top 6 Seed 26.7% 33.7% 15.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.8% 62.5% 39.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 50.8% 59.7% 36.7%
Average Seed 6.4 6.1 7.2
.500 or above 82.5% 89.5% 71.1%
.500 or above in Conference 55.9% 62.5% 45.2%
Conference Champion 6.5% 8.1% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 3.9% 8.5%
First Four4.0% 4.0% 4.1%
First Round51.8% 60.6% 37.7%
Second Round33.9% 40.7% 23.1%
Sweet Sixteen16.1% 20.1% 9.7%
Elite Eight7.4% 9.4% 4.2%
Final Four3.3% 4.3% 1.7%
Championship Game1.5% 1.9% 0.7%
National Champion0.6% 0.8% 0.3%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Neutral) - 61.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 39 - 10
Quad 34 - 113 - 11
Quad 46 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 65   Arizona St. W 66-63 62%    
  Nov 11, 2023 282   Tennessee Martin W 81-60 98%    
  Nov 14, 2023 223   North Alabama W 75-58 95%    
  Nov 18, 2023 86   Washington St. W 64-59 68%    
  Nov 24, 2023 284   Nicholls St. W 79-58 97%    
  Nov 28, 2023 98   @ Georgia Tech W 66-62 62%    
  Dec 03, 2023 321   Southern W 78-55 98%    
  Dec 09, 2023 99   Tulane W 75-68 72%    
  Dec 13, 2023 154   Murray St. W 72-59 88%    
  Dec 17, 2023 90   North Texas W 57-51 69%    
  Dec 23, 2023 51   Rutgers W 62-60 55%    
  Dec 31, 2023 349   Bethune-Cookman W 80-53 99%    
  Jan 06, 2024 89   @ South Carolina W 63-60 59%    
  Jan 10, 2024 7   Tennessee L 59-61 43%    
  Jan 13, 2024 12   Alabama L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 17, 2024 13   @ Kentucky L 61-68 29%    
  Jan 20, 2024 87   Vanderbilt W 69-61 76%    
  Jan 24, 2024 36   @ Florida L 64-67 40%    
  Jan 27, 2024 23   Auburn W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 30, 2024 60   @ Mississippi L 63-64 48%    
  Feb 03, 2024 12   @ Alabama L 67-74 28%    
  Feb 07, 2024 73   Georgia W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 10, 2024 52   @ Missouri L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 17, 2024 17   Arkansas W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 21, 2024 60   Mississippi W 66-61 67%    
  Feb 24, 2024 56   @ LSU L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 27, 2024 13   Kentucky L 64-65 48%    
  Mar 02, 2024 23   @ Auburn L 63-68 35%    
  Mar 06, 2024 22   @ Texas A&M L 61-66 35%    
  Mar 09, 2024 89   South Carolina W 66-57 76%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 6.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 3.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.4 0.6 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.0 1.0 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 4.5 1.8 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.3 2.5 0.2 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.4 0.6 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.4 0.9 0.0 7.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.4 6.3 8.6 9.6 11.0 11.3 11.1 10.0 8.4 6.0 4.2 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.1% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 91.8% 1.4    1.1 0.2 0.0
15-3 72.8% 1.9    1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 39.1% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 12.8% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.5% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.6% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 2.1 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.2% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 3.0 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.0% 99.5% 11.7% 87.8% 4.2 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
12-6 8.4% 98.2% 9.4% 88.8% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.0%
11-7 10.0% 94.2% 7.9% 86.3% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.6 93.7%
10-8 11.1% 83.3% 6.2% 77.1% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.9 82.2%
9-9 11.3% 61.9% 5.2% 56.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.3 59.8%
8-10 11.0% 31.4% 3.6% 27.8% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 28.8%
7-11 9.6% 10.1% 2.8% 7.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 7.6%
6-12 8.6% 3.1% 1.9% 1.2% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.3 1.3%
5-13 6.3% 1.7% 1.6% 0.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 0.1%
4-14 4.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
3-15 2.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-16 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
Total 100% 53.8% 6.2% 47.6% 6.4 2.8 3.6 4.6 4.7 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.1 5.5 5.0 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 46.2 50.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 90.7 9.3