Preseason Rankings
Auburn
Southeastern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#23
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#158
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.3% 2.2% 0.5%
#1 Seed 5.7% 9.2% 3.0%
Top 2 Seed 12.5% 19.4% 7.0%
Top 4 Seed 26.5% 37.8% 17.7%
Top 6 Seed 40.0% 53.5% 29.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.6% 79.7% 58.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.5% 77.1% 54.9%
Average Seed 5.7 5.1 6.4
.500 or above 89.5% 95.8% 84.6%
.500 or above in Conference 70.8% 79.2% 64.2%
Conference Champion 11.8% 15.8% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.7% 4.1%
First Four4.2% 3.5% 4.7%
First Round65.5% 77.9% 55.6%
Second Round46.6% 58.7% 37.1%
Sweet Sixteen24.3% 32.6% 17.8%
Elite Eight12.3% 17.0% 8.6%
Final Four6.1% 8.9% 3.9%
Championship Game2.6% 4.0% 1.6%
National Champion1.2% 1.9% 0.6%

Next Game: Baylor (Neutral) - 44.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 25 - 210 - 9
Quad 35 - 115 - 10
Quad 45 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 14   Baylor L 73-74 44%    
  Nov 10, 2023 268   SE Louisiana W 86-64 98%    
  Nov 16, 2023 133   Notre Dame W 75-64 84%    
  Nov 21, 2023 338   Alabama A&M W 84-57 99%    
  Nov 29, 2023 57   Virginia Tech W 75-68 73%    
  Dec 03, 2023 153   @ Appalachian St. W 72-63 78%    
  Dec 09, 2023 39   Indiana W 73-71 57%    
  Dec 13, 2023 170   UNC Asheville W 79-66 87%    
  Dec 17, 2023 18   USC W 74-72 58%    
  Dec 22, 2023 353   Alabama St. W 84-55 99%    
  Dec 30, 2023 197   Chattanooga W 82-65 93%    
  Jan 02, 2024 203   Penn W 82-64 94%    
  Jan 06, 2024 17   @ Arkansas L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 09, 2024 22   Texas A&M W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 13, 2024 56   LSU W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 17, 2024 87   @ Vanderbilt W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 20, 2024 60   Mississippi W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 24, 2024 12   @ Alabama L 75-80 34%    
  Jan 27, 2024 37   @ Mississippi St. L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 31, 2024 87   Vanderbilt W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 03, 2024 60   @ Mississippi W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 07, 2024 12   Alabama W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 10, 2024 36   @ Florida L 73-74 45%    
  Feb 14, 2024 89   South Carolina W 73-63 81%    
  Feb 17, 2024 13   Kentucky W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 24, 2024 73   @ Georgia W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 28, 2024 7   @ Tennessee L 64-70 30%    
  Mar 02, 2024 37   Mississippi St. W 68-63 65%    
  Mar 05, 2024 52   @ Missouri W 76-75 51%    
  Mar 09, 2024 73   Georgia W 77-68 76%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 3.5 2.6 1.3 0.3 11.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.3 3.4 0.9 0.1 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.3 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.8 1.0 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.3 1.1 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.0 1.8 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.5 0.8 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.9 1.0 0.1 4.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.0 0.1 3.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.0 7.1 9.4 10.4 11.6 11.3 10.9 9.4 7.5 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 97.9% 1.3    1.2 0.1
16-2 90.6% 2.6    2.1 0.5 0.0
15-3 66.8% 3.5    2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 37.8% 2.8    1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.1% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.8% 11.8 7.0 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.3% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.9% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.2% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 2.1 1.6 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.5% 100.0% 16.9% 83.0% 3.0 0.9 2.0 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.4% 99.7% 12.2% 87.5% 4.1 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.2 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 10.9% 97.9% 10.6% 87.4% 5.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 2.4 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.7%
11-7 11.3% 93.2% 7.7% 85.5% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 92.7%
10-8 11.6% 80.7% 5.4% 75.3% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.2 79.6%
9-9 10.4% 61.2% 5.7% 55.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.1 4.0 58.9%
8-10 9.4% 30.0% 3.8% 26.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 27.2%
7-11 7.1% 12.5% 3.3% 9.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 9.5%
6-12 5.0% 3.0% 1.8% 1.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 1.3%
5-13 3.5% 2.9% 2.7% 0.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.2%
4-14 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 67.6% 8.7% 58.9% 5.7 5.7 6.8 7.3 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.8 6.2 5.4 4.9 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 32.4 64.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 94.9 5.1