Preseason Rankings
Chattanooga
Southern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#197
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.7#140
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#151
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#236
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 13.2% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.4 14.2
.500 or above 62.8% 81.7% 56.1%
.500 or above in Conference 67.2% 78.7% 63.1%
Conference Champion 10.0% 15.4% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.1% 3.9%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.8%
First Round8.6% 12.8% 7.1%
Second Round1.0% 1.8% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 26.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 412 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 124   @ Louisville L 69-76 26%    
  Nov 14, 2023 215   Bellarmine W 70-66 65%    
  Nov 19, 2023 289   Tennessee Tech W 77-69 78%    
  Nov 24, 2023 329   Evansville W 79-68 85%    
  Nov 26, 2023 308   Southeast Missouri St. W 84-74 81%    
  Nov 29, 2023 184   @ Lipscomb L 74-78 38%    
  Dec 03, 2023 220   @ Morehead St. L 67-68 45%    
  Dec 16, 2023 338   @ Alabama A&M W 76-69 71%    
  Dec 19, 2023 195   Gardner-Webb W 71-68 60%    
  Dec 22, 2023 217   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 78-80 44%    
  Dec 30, 2023 23   @ Auburn L 65-82 7%    
  Jan 03, 2024 165   @ Samford L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 06, 2024 104   Furman L 75-77 41%    
  Jan 11, 2024 351   VMI W 80-66 89%    
  Jan 13, 2024 119   UNC Greensboro L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 17, 2024 237   @ Mercer L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 20, 2024 239   @ East Tennessee St. L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 24, 2024 242   @ Wofford L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 27, 2024 320   The Citadel W 79-68 81%    
  Jan 31, 2024 205   @ Western Carolina L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 03, 2024 165   Samford W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 08, 2024 351   @ VMI W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 10, 2024 119   @ UNC Greensboro L 66-73 28%    
  Feb 14, 2024 239   East Tennessee St. W 73-67 67%    
  Feb 18, 2024 104   @ Furman L 72-80 24%    
  Feb 21, 2024 242   Wofford W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 24, 2024 320   @ The Citadel W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 28, 2024 237   Mercer W 72-66 68%    
  Mar 02, 2024 205   Western Carolina W 76-72 62%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.5 2.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 10.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.1 4.6 3.3 1.0 0.2 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.4 5.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.4 5.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.2 4.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.7 3.5 0.8 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.1 5.9 8.1 10.0 11.4 11.9 11.7 10.3 8.5 6.2 3.9 2.2 0.8 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 92.5% 2.0    1.7 0.3
15-3 73.1% 2.8    1.9 0.9 0.1
14-4 40.0% 2.5    1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.6% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.0% 10.0 6.1 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 72.4% 64.7% 7.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 21.8%
17-1 0.8% 58.6% 55.7% 3.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 6.7%
16-2 2.2% 39.4% 38.4% 1.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 1.6%
15-3 3.9% 31.2% 31.2% 0.0% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 0.1%
14-4 6.2% 23.4% 23.4% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.8
13-5 8.5% 15.2% 15.2% 14.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 7.3
12-6 10.3% 11.6% 11.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 9.1
11-7 11.7% 8.3% 8.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 10.7
10-8 11.9% 4.9% 4.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 11.4
9-9 11.4% 3.2% 3.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 11.0
8-10 10.0% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.8
7-11 8.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.0
6-12 5.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.9
5-13 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
4-14 2.5% 2.5
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.3 91.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.6 3.8 34.6 57.7 3.8