Preseason Rankings
Southern
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
104 Furman 32.3%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 9 13 - 5 +4.0      +4.1 65 -0.1 175 70.2 126 0.0 1 0.0 1
119 UNC Greensboro 25.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 6 +2.8      -0.4 191 +3.2 85 65.3 261 0.0 1 0.0 1
165 Samford 14.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +0.4      +1.9 122 -1.5 221 69.4 146 0.0 1 0.0 1
197 Chattanooga 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -1.4      +0.6 151 -2.0 236 69.7 140 0.0 1 0.0 1
205 Western Carolina 7.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -2.0      0.0 173 -2.0 237 68.6 165 0.0 1 0.0 1
237 Mercer 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 9 -3.9      -3.0 270 -0.9 205 62.7 316 0.0 1 0.0 1
239 East Tennessee St. 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -4.0      -3.0 268 -1.0 207 65.3 257 0.0 1 0.0 1
242 Wofford 4.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -4.2      -0.6 202 -3.6 284 63.8 288 0.0 1 0.0 1
320 The Citadel 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 19 6 - 12 -8.9      -4.0 297 -4.9 321 67.9 177 0.0 1 0.0 1
351 VMI 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 22 4 - 14 -12.7      -5.4 324 -7.3 355 67.1 203 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Furman 2.5 39.7 21.7 13.9 9.8 6.3 3.9 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1
UNC Greensboro 2.9 30.6 21.9 16.0 11.0 7.9 5.4 3.7 2.2 1.0 0.3
Samford 3.8 17.2 17.4 16.4 13.8 11.9 8.8 6.7 4.7 2.3 0.8
Chattanooga 4.6 10.0 13.3 14.0 14.4 13.2 11.6 9.9 7.4 4.3 1.7
Western Carolina 4.8 8.8 11.6 12.9 13.7 13.6 12.3 10.8 8.3 5.5 2.4
Mercer 5.5 5.2 8.3 9.9 11.8 13.3 13.7 13.4 11.9 8.6 4.0
East Tennessee St. 5.7 4.6 7.2 9.4 11.7 12.9 13.7 14.1 13.0 9.0 4.3
Wofford 5.9 3.9 6.3 8.5 10.8 12.2 13.7 14.8 13.8 11.1 4.9
The Citadel 7.7 0.6 1.5 2.9 4.4 6.4 9.1 12.7 18.4 25.0 19.0
VMI 8.8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 4.3 7.2 12.8 24.8 46.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Furman 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.3 4.9 7.1 9.5 11.2 12.8 13.7 13.4 10.6 7.0 2.8
UNC Greensboro 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.3 6.3 8.4 10.7 12.4 13.2 12.5 11.2 8.0 4.9 1.7
Samford 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.8 5.7 7.8 9.8 11.2 12.0 12.0 11.1 9.1 6.8 4.1 1.8 0.5
Chattanooga 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.1 5.9 8.1 10.0 11.4 11.9 11.7 10.3 8.5 6.2 3.9 2.2 0.8 0.2
Western Carolina 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.3 4.9 6.8 8.8 10.3 11.6 12.0 10.9 9.4 7.6 5.4 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2
Mercer 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.0 7.1 9.3 10.6 12.0 11.8 10.7 9.1 6.9 5.3 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1
East Tennessee St. 8 - 10 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.3 5.5 8.0 9.7 11.1 11.7 11.9 10.4 8.7 6.7 4.6 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1
Wofford 8 - 10 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.9 6.5 8.7 10.5 11.6 11.9 11.1 9.9 7.9 6.0 4.0 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
The Citadel 6 - 12 1.6 4.8 8.7 11.8 13.2 13.3 12.2 10.1 8.2 6.0 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
VMI 4 - 14 7.2 13.2 16.6 16.5 14.4 10.8 7.8 5.5 3.5 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Furman 39.7% 29.7 8.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 30.6% 22.0 7.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Samford 17.2% 11.1 4.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 10.0% 6.1 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 8.8% 5.2 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mercer 5.2% 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
East Tennessee St. 4.6% 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wofford 3.9% 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
The Citadel 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Furman 32.3% 31.6% 0.7% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 4.0 8.0 8.3 5.7 2.8 1.1 67.7 1.0%
UNC Greensboro 25.0% 24.5% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.4 5.5 6.4 5.1 2.8 1.5 75.0 0.7%
Samford 14.0% 13.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.3 3.8 2.4 1.4 86.0 0.2%
Chattanooga 8.9% 8.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.3 91.1 0.1%
Western Carolina 7.6% 7.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.3 92.4 0.1%
Mercer 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.2 95.7 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 4.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 95.6 0.0%
Wofford 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 95.9 0.0%
The Citadel 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.3 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Furman 32.3% 0.9% 31.9% 6.9% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 25.0% 1.1% 24.5% 4.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 14.0% 0.8% 13.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 8.9% 0.7% 8.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 7.6% 0.8% 7.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 4.3% 0.8% 4.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 4.4% 0.8% 4.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 4.1% 1.0% 3.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.5 1.5
1st Round 97.2% 1.0 2.8 96.2 1.0
2nd Round 15.8% 0.2 84.2 15.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 4.3% 0.0 95.7 4.3 0.0
Elite Eight 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0