IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
The Citadel
Southern
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.9	#320
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.9	#177
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.0	#297

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.9	#321

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.2	14.8	15.3

.500 or above	9.5%	30.8%	8.9%
.500 or above in Conference	16.0%	33.5%	15.5%
Conference Champion	0.6%	1.0%	0.6%
Last Place in Conference	27.7%	14.3%	28.1%

First Four	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%
First Round	0.6%	1.6%	0.6%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 2.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 7	1 - 11
Quad 4	7 - 8	8 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	61	@ North Carolina St.	L	64-85	3%
Nov 10, 2023	103	Boston College	L	65-75	18%
Nov 13, 2023	322	@ Presbyterian	L	65-68	40%
Nov 20, 2023	290	Idaho St.	L	67-69	43%
Nov 21, 2023	306	NC Central	L	69-70	46%
Nov 22, 2023	294	@ Campbell	L	65-70	33%
Nov 28, 2023	328	Charleston Southern	W	73-69	63%
Dec 14, 2023	80	@ College of Charleston	L	67-86	5%
Dec 19, 2023	133	@ Notre Dame	L	62-76	11%
Jan 03, 2024	205	Western Carolina	L	70-74	37%
Jan 06, 2024	165	Samford	L	70-76	29%
Jan 10, 2024	104	@ Furman	L	66-82	9%
Jan 13, 2024	242	Wofford	L	69-71	44%
Jan 17, 2024	119	@ UNC Greensboro	L	60-75	11%
Jan 20, 2024	351	@ VMI	W	72-71	52%
Jan 24, 2024	237	Mercer	L	66-68	44%
Jan 27, 2024	197	@ Chattanooga	L	68-79	19%
Jan 31, 2024	104	Furman	L	69-79	20%
Feb 03, 2024	239	@ East Tennessee St.	L	65-73	26%
Feb 07, 2024	205	@ Western Carolina	L	67-77	21%
Feb 10, 2024	242	@ Wofford	L	66-74	26%
Feb 14, 2024	119	UNC Greensboro	L	63-72	24%
Feb 17, 2024	351	VMI	W	75-68	71%
Feb 21, 2024	237	@ Mercer	L	63-71	25%
Feb 24, 2024	197	Chattanooga	L	71-76	35%
Feb 28, 2024	239	East Tennessee St.	L	68-70	43%
Mar 02, 2024	165	@ Samford	L	67-79	16%
Projected Record						8 - 19	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0			0.6	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0					1.5	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	0.6	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.0						2.9	3rd
4th								0.0	0.1	1.1	1.9	1.1	0.2	0.0							4.4	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	1.6	2.8	1.4	0.2									6.4	5th
6th						0.0	0.6	2.6	3.9	1.7	0.3	0.0									9.1	6th
7th					0.1	1.3	3.9	4.8	2.3	0.3	0.0										12.7	7th
8th			0.0	0.5	3.2	6.4	5.8	2.3	0.3												18.4	8th
9th		0.3	2.7	6.7	8.0	5.2	1.8	0.1	0.0												25.0	9th
10th	1.6	4.4	6.0	4.6	2.0	0.4	0.0														19.0	10th

Total	1.6	4.8	8.7	11.8	13.2	13.3	12.2	10.1	8.2	6.0	4.2	2.8	1.6	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0				Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
15-3	81.7%	0.2		0.1	0.0	0.0
14-4	41.1%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
13-5	23.1%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	4.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.7%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.6%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%		4.3%	4.3%		11.0												0.0						0.0
16-2	0.0%		44.4%	44.4%		12.7													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
15-3	0.2%		8.9%	8.9%		13.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
14-4	0.4%		10.8%	10.8%		13.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
13-5	0.8%		7.3%	7.3%		14.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8
12-6	1.6%		6.9%	6.9%		14.7														0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.5
11-7	2.8%		5.4%	5.4%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.6
10-8	4.2%		2.6%	2.6%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	4.1
9-9	6.0%		1.6%	1.6%		15.9																0.0	0.1	5.9
8-10	8.2%		0.7%	0.7%		15.9																0.0	0.1	8.2
7-11	10.1%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	10.1
6-12	12.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.2
5-13	13.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	13.3
4-14	13.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	13.2
3-15	11.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
2-16	8.7%																							8.7
1-17	4.8%																							4.8
0-18	1.6%																							1.6

Total	100%		0.7%	0.7%	0.0%	15.2												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	99.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%