IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	+6.7	#80
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.4	#24
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.4	#56

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.2	#107

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.4%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	1.4%	1.7%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	2.6%	3.2%	0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid	36.8%	39.6%	26.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	3.7%	4.6%	1.0%
Average Seed	11.4	11.3	12.5

.500 or above	95.8%	97.5%	89.3%
.500 or above in Conference	96.9%	97.8%	93.9%
Conference Champion	42.5%	45.6%	30.9%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%

First Four	1.3%	1.4%	0.8%
First Round	36.1%	38.9%	25.9%
Second Round	11.6%	13.2%	5.8%
Sweet Sixteen	4.1%	4.8%	1.6%
Elite Eight	1.3%	1.5%	0.5%
Final Four	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Home) - 78.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	2 - 3
Quad 3	6 - 3	8 - 6
Quad 4	13 - 1	21 - 7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	148	Iona	W	82-74	79%
Nov 10, 2023	94	Duquesne	W	79-78	56%
Nov 16, 2023	108	Vermont	W	75-72	61%
Nov 26, 2023	107	@ Kent St.	L	76-77	49%
Dec 01, 2023	84	Liberty	W	72-71	52%
Dec 02, 2023	25	@ Florida Atlantic	L	73-82	21%
Dec 10, 2023	190	Rhode Island	W	80-69	82%
Dec 14, 2023	320	The Citadel	W	86-67	95%
Dec 18, 2023	270	Coastal Carolina	W	86-70	91%
Dec 21, 2023	136	Saint Joseph's	W	83-75	75%
Jan 04, 2024	112	@ Hofstra	L	76-77	50%
Jan 06, 2024	255	@ Stony Brook	W	76-67	78%
Jan 11, 2024	309	Elon	W	83-65	94%
Jan 13, 2024	311	Monmouth	W	85-67	93%
Jan 18, 2024	158	Towson	W	77-68	78%
Jan 20, 2024	140	@ UNC Wilmington	W	74-72	56%
Jan 25, 2024	312	@ Hampton	W	85-73	84%
Jan 27, 2024	294	@ Campbell	W	78-67	82%
Feb 01, 2024	140	UNC Wilmington	W	77-69	74%
Feb 03, 2024	302	@ William & Mary	W	79-68	83%
Feb 08, 2024	352	N.C. A&T	W	89-67	97%
Feb 10, 2024	125	Drexel	W	74-67	72%
Feb 15, 2024	228	@ Northeastern	W	77-70	73%
Feb 19, 2024	302	William & Mary	W	82-65	92%
Feb 22, 2024	194	@ Delaware	W	79-74	66%
Feb 24, 2024	158	@ Towson	W	74-71	59%
Feb 29, 2024	294	Campbell	W	81-64	91%
Mar 02, 2024	112	Hofstra	W	80-74	69%
Projected Record						21 - 7	14 - 4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.8	3.9	9.7	12.9	10.4	4.8		42.5	1st
2nd												0.0	0.9	4.3	7.9	6.0	1.6	0.1			20.8	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.7	3.3	5.5	2.9	0.4	0.0				12.8	3rd
4th										0.0	0.3	2.2	3.8	1.8	0.2	0.0					8.3	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	1.5	2.8	1.2	0.2	0.0						5.8	5th
6th									0.1	0.7	1.9	1.0	0.1								3.9	6th
7th								0.0	0.3	1.2	0.8	0.1									2.5	7th
8th							0.0	0.1	0.7	0.6	0.1	0.0									1.5	8th
9th						0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1											0.9	9th
10th					0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0											0.6	10th
11th					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1													0.3	11th
12th					0.0	0.1	0.0														0.1	12th
13th				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0														0.0	13th
14th			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.0	14th

Total			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.6	2.8	4.6	6.7	9.4	12.7	14.8	16.1	14.5	10.5	4.8			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	4.8		4.8
17-1	99.3%	10.4		9.8	0.6
16-2	88.8%	12.9		9.7	3.0	0.1
15-3	60.2%	9.7		5.0	3.9	0.8	0.0
14-4	26.2%	3.9		1.1	1.7	0.9	0.1	0.0
13-5	6.3%	0.8		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1
12-6	0.5%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0				0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	42.5%	42.5		30.4	9.5	2.2	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	4.8%		87.9%	72.7%	15.3%	7.0		0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.0			0.6		55.8%
17-1	10.5%		70.4%	61.2%	9.3%	10.3		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.6	0.9	2.6	1.6	0.4	0.0			3.1		23.9%
16-2	14.5%		54.8%	50.7%	4.0%	11.6						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.6	2.6	3.2	1.1	0.2	0.0		6.6		8.2%
15-3	16.1%		40.6%	39.7%	0.9%	12.3										0.0	0.1	1.1	3.0	1.9	0.5	0.1		9.6		1.6%
14-4	14.8%		31.1%	31.0%	0.1%	12.8											0.0	0.2	1.5	1.9	0.8	0.1	0.0	10.2		0.2%
13-5	12.7%		24.1%	24.1%		13.3												0.0	0.6	1.2	1.0	0.3	0.0	9.6
12-6	9.4%		16.8%	16.8%		13.7												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.0	7.8
11-7	6.7%		12.3%	12.3%		14.3													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	5.9
10-8	4.6%		8.4%	8.4%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	4.2
9-9	2.8%		5.9%	5.9%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.7
8-10	1.6%		5.1%	5.1%		15.9																0.0	0.1	1.5
7-11	0.8%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																0.0	0.0	0.8
6-12	0.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.4
5-13	0.2%																							0.2
4-14	0.1%																							0.1
3-15	0.0%																							0.0
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		36.8%	34.3%	2.4%	11.4		0.1	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.7	1.0	2.0	7.1	10.3	7.2	3.5	1.2	0.4	63.2		3.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.5%	98.9%	2.9	14.1	26.6	26.7	18.8	10.5	1.4	0.8		0.1