Preseason Rankings
Vermont
America East
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#108
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.8#313
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#108
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#122
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.3% 51.3% 34.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 14.0
.500 or above 90.1% 91.2% 70.6%
.500 or above in Conference 96.6% 96.9% 91.4%
Conference Champion 57.6% 58.7% 39.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four1.7% 1.6% 3.2%
First Round49.7% 50.7% 33.1%
Second Round8.8% 9.1% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 2.5% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Home) - 94.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 35 - 6
Quad 414 - 219 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 330   Merrimack W 71-54 94%    
  Nov 16, 2023 80   College of Charleston L 72-75 39%    
  Nov 25, 2023 100   @ Bradley L 63-67 37%    
  Nov 29, 2023 243   Dartmouth W 75-64 84%    
  Dec 02, 2023 68   Yale L 66-67 46%    
  Dec 06, 2023 228   @ Northeastern W 68-64 65%    
  Dec 09, 2023 110   Colgate W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 16, 2023 57   @ Virginia Tech L 65-73 23%    
  Dec 20, 2023 132   @ Toledo L 74-75 45%    
  Dec 22, 2023 260   @ Miami (OH) W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 02, 2024 185   @ Brown W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 06, 2024 264   Maine W 72-60 85%    
  Jan 11, 2024 292   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-63 88%    
  Jan 13, 2024 339   NJIT W 75-57 93%    
  Jan 18, 2024 297   @ Binghamton W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 25, 2024 179   @ Umass Lowell W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 27, 2024 208   @ Bryant W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 01, 2024 318   Albany W 77-61 90%    
  Feb 03, 2024 297   Binghamton W 74-60 88%    
  Feb 08, 2024 339   @ NJIT W 72-60 84%    
  Feb 10, 2024 292   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 74-66 73%    
  Feb 15, 2024 288   New Hampshire W 71-57 87%    
  Feb 17, 2024 264   @ Maine W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 22, 2024 318   @ Albany W 74-64 79%    
  Feb 24, 2024 208   Bryant W 79-70 77%    
  Mar 02, 2024 179   Umass Lowell W 74-67 72%    
  Mar 05, 2024 288   @ New Hampshire W 68-60 74%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.6 6.0 11.9 16.0 14.2 7.7 57.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.8 7.1 4.5 1.2 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.0 3.1 0.9 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.1 5.4 7.8 10.8 14.1 16.4 17.2 14.2 7.7 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 7.7    7.7
15-1 100.0% 14.2    13.7 0.5
14-2 92.9% 16.0    13.5 2.4 0.0
13-3 72.5% 11.9    7.9 3.7 0.3 0.0
12-4 42.8% 6.0    2.6 2.7 0.7 0.0
11-5 14.7% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 57.6% 57.6 45.8 10.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 7.7% 87.5% 85.1% 2.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.0 16.5%
15-1 14.2% 76.4% 75.6% 0.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 3.9 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.4 3.5%
14-2 17.2% 65.6% 65.4% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.0 2.7 0.8 0.1 5.9 0.5%
13-3 16.4% 54.3% 54.2% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.9 3.1 1.4 0.2 7.5 0.1%
12-4 14.1% 42.4% 42.4% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.1 1.7 0.5 8.1
11-5 10.8% 31.4% 31.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.7 7.4
10-6 7.8% 22.5% 22.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 6.0
9-7 5.4% 15.6% 15.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 4.5
8-8 3.1% 11.8% 11.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.7
7-9 1.8% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
6-10 0.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-11 0.4% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-12 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 50.3% 50.0% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 4.6 10.2 12.8 10.7 6.3 3.3 49.7 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 98.2% 4.2 7.4 10.2 15.2 29.3 9.8 15.6 6.6 1.0 1.8 1.4