Preseason Rankings
Bradley
Missouri Valley
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#100
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.3#279
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#147
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#70
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 1.4% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 2.8% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 26.2% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.0% 6.7% 1.5%
Average Seed 11.5 10.7 12.1
.500 or above 79.7% 91.3% 74.6%
.500 or above in Conference 84.1% 90.9% 81.1%
Conference Champion 20.3% 28.1% 16.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four1.6% 2.5% 1.2%
First Round17.3% 24.9% 14.0%
Second Round5.2% 8.7% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 3.1% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 30.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 49 - 9
Quad 410 - 218 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 77   @ UAB L 69-74 31%    
  Nov 11, 2023 83   Utah St. W 69-68 54%    
  Nov 14, 2023 214   Tarleton St. W 70-60 82%    
  Nov 20, 2023 99   Tulane L 74-75 49%    
  Nov 25, 2023 108   Vermont W 67-63 63%    
  Nov 29, 2023 154   @ Murray St. W 68-67 52%    
  Dec 02, 2023 122   Indiana St. W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 05, 2023 114   @ Akron L 64-66 43%    
  Dec 15, 2023 187   Cleveland St. W 70-62 76%    
  Dec 18, 2023 94   Duquesne L 69-70 48%    
  Dec 21, 2023 259   SIU Edwardsville W 75-62 86%    
  Jan 03, 2024 310   @ Valparaiso W 71-61 80%    
  Jan 06, 2024 143   Missouri St. W 64-58 69%    
  Jan 10, 2024 329   Evansville W 77-60 93%    
  Jan 13, 2024 244   @ Illinois-Chicago W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 17, 2024 171   @ Southern Illinois W 63-61 54%    
  Jan 20, 2024 128   Belmont W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 24, 2024 154   Murray St. W 71-64 71%    
  Jan 27, 2024 122   @ Indiana St. L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 31, 2024 123   Northern Iowa W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 03, 2024 209   @ Illinois St. W 67-63 62%    
  Feb 07, 2024 329   @ Evansville W 74-63 82%    
  Feb 10, 2024 70   Drake W 66-65 50%    
  Feb 14, 2024 244   Illinois-Chicago W 75-63 84%    
  Feb 18, 2024 123   @ Northern Iowa L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 21, 2024 143   @ Missouri St. L 61-62 50%    
  Feb 24, 2024 209   Illinois St. W 70-60 78%    
  Feb 28, 2024 171   Southern Illinois W 66-58 73%    
  Mar 03, 2024 70   @ Drake L 63-69 31%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.8 5.4 4.1 2.1 0.7 20.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.1 5.7 4.0 1.5 0.3 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.7 5.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.4 4.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.1 3.6 1.0 0.1 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.7 0.8 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.3 0.6 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.1 5.7 7.4 9.2 10.7 11.4 11.5 10.7 9.1 7.0 4.4 2.1 0.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.1    2.0 0.1
18-2 93.3% 4.1    3.6 0.5 0.0
17-3 77.8% 5.4    3.8 1.5 0.1
16-4 52.1% 4.8    2.4 1.9 0.5 0.0
15-5 22.9% 2.4    0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.1% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.3% 20.3 13.4 5.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 94.2% 62.1% 32.1% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.8%
19-1 2.1% 80.1% 52.1% 28.0% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 58.5%
18-2 4.4% 60.6% 41.0% 19.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 33.2%
17-3 7.0% 41.9% 33.5% 8.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.0 12.6%
16-4 9.1% 28.1% 25.7% 2.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.6 3.3%
15-5 10.7% 21.6% 21.0% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.4 0.8%
14-6 11.5% 15.8% 15.7% 0.1% 12.8 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 9.7 0.1%
13-7 11.4% 12.0% 12.0% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 10.0
12-8 10.7% 8.0% 8.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.9
11-9 9.2% 6.1% 6.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.6
10-10 7.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.0
9-11 5.7% 4.1% 4.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.5
8-12 4.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9
7-13 2.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.6
6-14 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-15 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.1% 15.6% 2.6% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 3.9 4.9 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.5 81.9 3.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 99.6% 2.8 17.9 21.4 34.8 17.9 4.0 3.6