Preseason Rankings
Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#209
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.6#296
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#208
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#218
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 5.1% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.1 14.0
.500 or above 44.2% 68.2% 38.7%
.500 or above in Conference 41.5% 58.1% 37.6%
Conference Champion 2.7% 5.6% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.3% 3.1% 8.2%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round2.7% 4.9% 2.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 18.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 49 - 413 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 102   @ Saint Louis L 67-76 19%    
  Nov 15, 2023 332   Eastern Illinois W 74-63 85%    
  Nov 20, 2023 141   Long Beach St. L 74-78 36%    
  Nov 30, 2023 244   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 03, 2023 154   Murray St. W 70-69 50%    
  Dec 06, 2023 183   Northern Kentucky W 64-62 55%    
  Dec 09, 2023 248   Norfolk St. W 70-64 69%    
  Dec 17, 2023 201   North Dakota St. W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 21, 2023 308   Southeast Missouri St. W 79-70 78%    
  Dec 29, 2023 13   @ Kentucky L 59-79 4%    
  Jan 02, 2024 70   @ Drake L 61-74 14%    
  Jan 06, 2024 171   Southern Illinois W 63-62 53%    
  Jan 10, 2024 128   @ Belmont L 68-76 26%    
  Jan 14, 2024 310   Valparaiso W 72-63 77%    
  Jan 17, 2024 70   Drake L 64-71 29%    
  Jan 20, 2024 143   @ Missouri St. L 59-66 28%    
  Jan 23, 2024 128   Belmont L 71-73 45%    
  Jan 27, 2024 329   @ Evansville W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 30, 2024 154   @ Murray St. L 66-72 31%    
  Feb 03, 2024 100   Bradley L 63-67 38%    
  Feb 07, 2024 244   Illinois-Chicago W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 10, 2024 171   @ Southern Illinois L 60-65 34%    
  Feb 13, 2024 122   @ Indiana St. L 69-77 26%    
  Feb 18, 2024 329   Evansville W 75-64 81%    
  Feb 21, 2024 123   Northern Iowa L 68-70 45%    
  Feb 24, 2024 100   @ Bradley L 60-70 22%    
  Feb 28, 2024 143   Missouri St. L 62-63 47%    
  Mar 03, 2024 310   @ Valparaiso W 69-66 60%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 2.4 0.6 0.1 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.8 2.6 0.5 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.2 2.9 0.6 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.8 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.0 3.3 0.8 0.1 12.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.3 5.0 3.0 0.8 0.0 13.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.4 3.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 11.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.6 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 4.7 7.1 8.7 10.4 11.2 11.0 10.1 8.9 7.3 5.9 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 96.3% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 78.4% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 51.8% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 24.2% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 50.0% 45.0% 5.0% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1%
19-1 0.1% 44.7% 36.4% 8.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.1%
18-2 0.4% 35.1% 27.6% 7.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.4%
17-3 0.8% 22.5% 21.8% 0.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8%
16-4 1.4% 20.6% 19.7% 0.8% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.0%
15-5 2.5% 12.2% 12.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2
14-6 4.2% 8.6% 8.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8
13-7 5.9% 5.7% 5.7% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.6
12-8 7.3% 4.6% 4.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.0
11-9 8.9% 3.4% 3.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.6
10-10 10.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.8
9-11 11.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.9
8-12 11.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.1
7-13 10.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.3
6-14 8.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.7
5-15 7.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.1
4-16 4.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.7
3-17 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.9% 2.8% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 97.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%