Preseason Rankings
Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.6#123
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.3#169
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#128
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#142
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 1.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 16.7% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 3.2% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.2 11.4 12.8
.500 or above 72.1% 87.2% 66.0%
.500 or above in Conference 74.6% 84.4% 70.7%
Conference Champion 12.7% 19.4% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.6% 1.8%
First Four1.0% 1.6% 0.8%
First Round10.7% 16.0% 8.6%
Second Round2.5% 4.4% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 28.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 35 - 57 - 10
Quad 49 - 216 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 90   @ North Texas L 57-63 29%    
  Nov 19, 2023 145   @ South Florida L 71-73 43%    
  Nov 22, 2023 16   North Carolina L 69-80 15%    
  Nov 29, 2023 128   Belmont W 76-73 61%    
  Dec 02, 2023 329   @ Evansville W 77-68 79%    
  Dec 06, 2023 129   Richmond W 70-67 61%    
  Dec 09, 2023 132   @ Toledo L 76-79 41%    
  Dec 12, 2023 326   Prairie View W 77-62 91%    
  Dec 17, 2023 281   Alcorn St. W 77-65 85%    
  Dec 21, 2023 240   @ Northern Illinois W 75-71 62%    
  Jan 03, 2024 143   @ Missouri St. L 64-66 43%    
  Jan 07, 2024 122   Indiana St. W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 10, 2024 244   Illinois-Chicago W 78-68 80%    
  Jan 14, 2024 154   @ Murray St. L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 17, 2024 128   @ Belmont L 73-76 41%    
  Jan 20, 2024 171   Southern Illinois W 68-62 67%    
  Jan 23, 2024 329   Evansville W 80-65 90%    
  Jan 27, 2024 70   @ Drake L 66-74 25%    
  Jan 31, 2024 100   @ Bradley L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 03, 2024 154   Murray St. W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 07, 2024 143   Missouri St. W 67-63 62%    
  Feb 11, 2024 244   @ Illinois-Chicago W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 14, 2024 310   @ Valparaiso W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 18, 2024 100   Bradley W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 21, 2024 209   @ Illinois St. W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 24, 2024 70   Drake L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 27, 2024 310   Valparaiso W 77-63 87%    
  Mar 03, 2024 171   @ Southern Illinois L 65-66 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.1 3.5 2.3 1.1 0.3 12.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 4.5 2.6 1.0 0.2 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.5 4.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.6 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.4 3.8 1.1 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 3.5 0.8 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 2.9 0.7 0.1 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.3 7.7 9.4 10.5 11.1 11.0 9.8 8.3 6.1 4.5 2.5 1.1 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 92.5% 2.3    2.0 0.3 0.0
17-3 77.8% 3.5    2.5 0.9 0.1
16-4 50.8% 3.1    1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 20.7% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 8.1 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 83.9% 50.3% 33.6% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.7%
19-1 1.1% 70.7% 45.4% 25.3% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 46.3%
18-2 2.5% 52.3% 38.6% 13.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.2 22.3%
17-3 4.5% 34.0% 28.0% 6.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.0 8.4%
16-4 6.1% 25.5% 23.8% 1.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 4.6 2.3%
15-5 8.3% 18.0% 17.8% 0.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.8 0.2%
14-6 9.8% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 8.6 0.0%
13-7 11.0% 9.0% 9.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.0
12-8 11.1% 7.2% 7.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.3
11-9 10.5% 4.9% 4.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.0
10-10 9.4% 3.2% 3.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.1
9-11 7.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.6
8-12 6.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.1
7-13 4.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 4.6
6-14 3.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.0
5-15 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-16 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-17 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.1% 10.0% 1.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.9 2.8 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.7 88.9 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.1 1.6 15.6 53.1 28.1 1.6