Preseason Rankings
Toledo
Mid-American
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#132
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.6#63
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#45
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#267
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.1% 18.5% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.7
.500 or above 75.8% 79.8% 53.5%
.500 or above in Conference 82.8% 84.9% 71.5%
Conference Champion 20.1% 21.8% 11.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.9% 2.4%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.2%
First Round16.7% 18.1% 8.7%
Second Round3.3% 3.7% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 84.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 57 - 9
Quad 411 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 265   Detroit Mercy W 85-74 85%    
  Nov 11, 2023 176   Louisiana W 82-77 69%    
  Nov 14, 2023 131   @ Wright St. L 82-85 39%    
  Nov 21, 2023 55   New Mexico L 82-89 27%    
  Nov 22, 2023 97   UC Irvine L 77-80 41%    
  Nov 24, 2023 122   Indiana St. L 82-83 48%    
  Dec 02, 2023 139   George Mason W 76-73 62%    
  Dec 06, 2023 256   @ Oakland W 82-78 65%    
  Dec 09, 2023 123   Northern Iowa W 79-76 59%    
  Dec 13, 2023 135   Marshall W 86-83 61%    
  Dec 20, 2023 108   Vermont W 75-74 55%    
  Dec 23, 2023 63   @ West Virginia L 75-84 21%    
  Jan 02, 2024 127   @ Ohio L 79-82 40%    
  Jan 06, 2024 260   Miami (OH) W 83-72 81%    
  Jan 09, 2024 107   @ Kent St. L 75-80 34%    
  Jan 13, 2024 234   Ball St. W 83-74 78%    
  Jan 16, 2024 216   Buffalo W 88-80 74%    
  Jan 19, 2024 323   @ Central Michigan W 81-72 76%    
  Jan 23, 2024 240   @ Northern Illinois W 81-78 61%    
  Jan 27, 2024 235   Bowling Green W 87-78 77%    
  Jan 30, 2024 319   Western Michigan W 83-69 88%    
  Feb 03, 2024 114   @ Akron L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 06, 2024 315   @ Eastern Michigan W 85-77 73%    
  Feb 17, 2024 127   Ohio W 82-79 60%    
  Feb 20, 2024 114   Akron W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 24, 2024 235   @ Bowling Green W 84-81 60%    
  Feb 27, 2024 240   Northern Illinois W 84-75 78%    
  Mar 02, 2024 216   @ Buffalo W 85-83 56%    
  Mar 05, 2024 260   @ Miami (OH) W 80-75 65%    
  Mar 08, 2024 107   Kent St. W 78-77 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 5.9 5.1 2.7 0.8 20.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.8 5.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.0 4.1 1.1 0.1 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.3 3.1 0.5 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 3.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.4 6.3 8.3 10.5 11.7 12.4 11.9 10.6 8.4 5.4 2.7 0.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.7    2.6 0.1
16-2 93.7% 5.1    4.3 0.8 0.0
15-3 71.0% 5.9    3.7 2.0 0.2
14-4 36.4% 3.9    1.5 1.7 0.6 0.0
13-5 12.3% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.1% 20.1 13.3 5.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 81.0% 65.1% 15.9% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 45.6%
17-1 2.7% 62.6% 53.8% 8.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 19.1%
16-2 5.4% 48.4% 45.4% 3.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 5.4%
15-3 8.4% 35.4% 34.5% 0.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.4 1.3%
14-4 10.6% 25.7% 25.5% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.9 0.3%
13-5 11.9% 17.9% 17.9% 13.4 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.8
12-6 12.4% 13.2% 13.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 10.8
11-7 11.7% 10.1% 10.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 10.5
10-8 10.5% 6.8% 6.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 9.8
9-9 8.3% 4.8% 4.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.9
8-10 6.3% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.2
7-11 4.4% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.4
6-12 3.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.9
5-13 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.1% 16.5% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.0 4.1 4.0 2.9 1.7 1.1 82.9 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.3 28.9 0.6 20.8 15.1 29.6 5.0