Preseason Rankings
UC Irvine
Big West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#97
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.3#70
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#139
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#72
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.1% 36.3% 23.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.3% 4.0% 0.9%
Average Seed 12.0 11.5 12.7
.500 or above 82.7% 91.1% 73.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 95.2% 88.5%
Conference Champion 36.7% 43.5% 29.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four1.5% 1.5% 1.4%
First Round29.4% 35.6% 22.9%
Second Round7.7% 10.5% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 3.2% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Away) - 51.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 36 - 48 - 9
Quad 411 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 147   @ San Jose St. W 67-66 51%    
  Nov 11, 2023 167   New Mexico St. W 77-70 75%    
  Nov 14, 2023 18   @ USC L 67-79 14%    
  Nov 21, 2023 191   Pepperdine W 81-75 70%    
  Nov 22, 2023 132   Toledo W 80-77 59%    
  Nov 24, 2023 178   Rice W 79-74 68%    
  Nov 29, 2023 94   @ Duquesne L 72-75 38%    
  Dec 02, 2023 83   @ Utah St. L 71-76 35%    
  Dec 09, 2023 31   @ San Diego St. L 63-73 19%    
  Dec 16, 2023 304   South Dakota W 79-63 91%    
  Dec 20, 2023 55   @ New Mexico L 76-83 27%    
  Dec 28, 2023 202   UC Riverside W 75-65 79%    
  Dec 30, 2023 254   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-61 72%    
  Jan 04, 2024 161   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 06, 2024 173   UC Davis W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 12, 2024 142   @ Hawaii W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 18, 2024 241   UC San Diego W 78-66 85%    
  Jan 20, 2024 173   @ UC Davis W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 25, 2024 141   @ Long Beach St. W 80-79 51%    
  Jan 27, 2024 316   Cal St. Northridge W 76-60 91%    
  Feb 01, 2024 334   @ Cal Poly W 70-58 85%    
  Feb 03, 2024 142   Hawaii W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 08, 2024 150   @ UC Santa Barbara W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 10, 2024 202   @ UC Riverside W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 17, 2024 254   Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-58 85%    
  Feb 22, 2024 150   UC Santa Barbara W 73-66 71%    
  Feb 24, 2024 241   @ UC San Diego W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 29, 2024 316   @ Cal St. Northridge W 73-63 81%    
  Mar 02, 2024 141   Long Beach St. W 83-77 69%    
  Mar 07, 2024 334   Cal Poly W 73-55 94%    
  Mar 09, 2024 161   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 69-68 54%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 7.3 9.2 8.1 4.9 1.8 36.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.0 6.5 4.6 1.7 0.2 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.7 4.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.6 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 3.3 4.5 6.3 8.3 10.2 11.9 12.6 12.2 10.9 8.4 4.9 1.8 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
19-1 100.0% 4.9    4.8 0.1
18-2 97.0% 8.1    7.4 0.7 0.0
17-3 84.2% 9.2    7.2 1.9 0.1
16-4 60.0% 7.3    4.2 2.7 0.4 0.0
15-5 31.5% 4.0    1.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.7% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.7% 36.7 27.1 7.8 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.8% 87.6% 72.5% 15.0% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 54.8%
19-1 4.9% 76.6% 64.5% 12.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 34.1%
18-2 8.4% 59.7% 54.6% 5.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.4 11.1%
17-3 10.9% 48.3% 45.4% 2.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 2.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.7 5.3%
16-4 12.2% 37.5% 36.9% 0.6% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.6 0.9%
15-5 12.6% 27.3% 27.2% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.1 0.1%
14-6 11.9% 23.0% 23.0% 13.3 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 9.2
13-7 10.2% 16.1% 16.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 8.6
12-8 8.3% 11.6% 11.6% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 7.3
11-9 6.3% 9.2% 9.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 5.8
10-10 4.5% 7.4% 7.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.1
9-11 3.3% 4.4% 4.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.1
8-12 2.0% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.0
7-13 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-16 0.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-17 0.1% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 30.1% 28.4% 1.7% 12.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.6 5.3 8.6 6.2 3.3 1.5 1.0 69.9 2.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 52.0 10.0 22.0 16.0