Preseason Rankings
UC Riverside
Big West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#202
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.0#205
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#236
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#178
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 11.3% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 12.9 14.0
.500 or above 46.6% 74.3% 43.4%
.500 or above in Conference 55.0% 73.5% 52.8%
Conference Champion 6.3% 13.0% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 1.5% 5.6%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round5.3% 11.0% 4.7%
Second Round0.7% 2.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 10.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 64 - 12
Quad 410 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 62   @ Utah L 61-74 10%    
  Nov 12, 2023 174   @ Portland L 72-77 33%    
  Nov 17, 2023 16   @ North Carolina L 63-82 4%    
  Nov 21, 2023 340   Green Bay W 72-63 80%    
  Nov 22, 2023 225   @ Montana St. L 67-68 44%    
  Nov 30, 2023 19   @ UCLA L 58-76 6%    
  Dec 03, 2023 267   North Dakota W 74-67 73%    
  Dec 06, 2023 86   @ Washington St. L 60-71 18%    
  Dec 16, 2023 186   California Baptist W 66-64 57%    
  Dec 21, 2023 354   Idaho W 76-62 89%    
  Dec 28, 2023 97   @ UC Irvine L 65-75 21%    
  Dec 30, 2023 150   UC Santa Barbara W 68-67 50%    
  Jan 04, 2024 173   UC Davis W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 06, 2024 141   @ Long Beach St. L 74-80 29%    
  Jan 11, 2024 334   Cal Poly W 69-57 84%    
  Jan 14, 2024 142   @ Hawaii L 62-68 29%    
  Jan 18, 2024 254   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 63-62 51%    
  Jan 20, 2024 316   Cal St. Northridge W 72-62 80%    
  Jan 25, 2024 241   @ UC San Diego L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 27, 2024 141   Long Beach St. L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 03, 2024 316   @ Cal St. Northridge W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 08, 2024 254   Cal St. Bakersfield W 66-60 69%    
  Feb 10, 2024 97   UC Irvine L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 15, 2024 161   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 64-69 33%    
  Feb 17, 2024 173   @ UC Davis L 70-75 35%    
  Feb 22, 2024 241   UC San Diego W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 24, 2024 334   @ Cal Poly W 66-60 68%    
  Mar 02, 2024 142   Hawaii L 64-65 48%    
  Mar 07, 2024 161   Cal St. Fullerton W 67-66 52%    
  Mar 09, 2024 150   @ UC Santa Barbara L 65-71 31%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 6.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.5 2.6 0.9 0.1 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.7 4.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.5 4.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.7 4.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 4.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.8 3.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.0 2.3 0.7 0.1 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.4 8.0 9.6 10.3 10.6 10.4 9.4 7.9 6.2 4.5 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 94.7% 0.7    0.7 0.1
17-3 84.3% 1.5    1.1 0.3 0.0
16-4 56.4% 1.7    0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.8% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 79.8% 67.4% 12.4% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.1%
19-1 0.3% 50.2% 35.2% 14.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 23.0%
18-2 0.8% 40.1% 37.9% 2.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 3.6%
17-3 1.8% 31.0% 30.6% 0.4% 12.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.6%
16-4 3.0% 20.9% 20.9% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.4
15-5 4.5% 18.2% 18.1% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.7 0.1%
14-6 6.2% 12.2% 12.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.5
13-7 7.9% 8.7% 8.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.2
12-8 9.4% 6.2% 6.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 8.8
11-9 10.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.0
10-10 10.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.3
9-11 10.3% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.1
8-12 9.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.5
7-13 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.9
6-14 6.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.4
5-15 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-16 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.0
3-17 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.7% 5.6% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 94.3 0.1%