Preseason Rankings
Long Beach St.
Big West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#141
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace80.6#2
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#99
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#202
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 18.1% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.9 12.6 13.4
.500 or above 68.0% 80.9% 57.1%
.500 or above in Conference 79.0% 85.5% 73.5%
Conference Champion 17.3% 22.2% 13.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.6% 1.6%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.2%
First Round13.8% 17.7% 10.6%
Second Round2.6% 3.6% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 45.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 46 - 10
Quad 410 - 315 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 174   @ Portland L 84-85 46%    
  Nov 11, 2023 109   @ DePaul L 79-84 32%    
  Nov 14, 2023 31   @ San Diego St. L 68-81 11%    
  Nov 17, 2023 48   @ Michigan L 74-85 16%    
  Nov 20, 2023 209   Illinois St. W 78-74 64%    
  Nov 26, 2023 225   @ Montana St. W 77-75 57%    
  Dec 02, 2023 252   Sacramento St. W 78-68 80%    
  Dec 10, 2023 18   @ USC L 72-87 10%    
  Dec 28, 2023 161   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 74-76 44%    
  Dec 30, 2023 316   Cal St. Northridge W 81-68 87%    
  Jan 04, 2024 334   @ Cal Poly W 75-66 79%    
  Jan 06, 2024 202   UC Riverside W 80-74 71%    
  Jan 11, 2024 241   @ UC San Diego W 80-77 60%    
  Jan 13, 2024 150   @ UC Santa Barbara L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 18, 2024 142   Hawaii W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 25, 2024 97   UC Irvine L 79-80 49%    
  Jan 27, 2024 202   @ UC Riverside W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 01, 2024 254   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 03, 2024 241   UC San Diego W 83-74 77%    
  Feb 10, 2024 334   Cal Poly W 78-63 90%    
  Feb 15, 2024 173   @ UC Davis L 82-83 46%    
  Feb 17, 2024 316   @ Cal St. Northridge W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 22, 2024 254   Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-66 79%    
  Feb 25, 2024 142   @ Hawaii L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 29, 2024 161   Cal St. Fullerton W 77-73 63%    
  Mar 02, 2024 97   @ UC Irvine L 77-83 31%    
  Mar 07, 2024 150   UC Santa Barbara W 78-74 61%    
  Mar 09, 2024 173   UC Davis W 85-80 65%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 4.4 4.6 3.1 1.5 0.4 17.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.4 5.1 3.2 1.0 0.1 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.2 4.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.0 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.4 3.0 0.6 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.5 3.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.6 5.4 6.8 8.4 9.8 11.3 11.0 10.5 9.3 7.9 5.6 3.2 1.5 0.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
18-2 96.1% 3.1    2.8 0.3 0.0
17-3 81.7% 4.6    3.4 1.1 0.1
16-4 55.9% 4.4    2.6 1.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 24.9% 2.3    0.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.3% 17.3 11.7 4.5 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 80.4% 59.8% 20.6% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 51.3%
19-1 1.5% 68.5% 59.3% 9.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 22.5%
18-2 3.2% 50.0% 46.6% 3.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 6.4%
17-3 5.6% 35.4% 34.5% 0.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 3.6 1.4%
16-4 7.9% 27.5% 27.3% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 5.8 0.3%
15-5 9.3% 20.5% 20.5% 13.2 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.4
14-6 10.5% 16.0% 16.0% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 8.9
13-7 11.0% 11.6% 11.6% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 9.8
12-8 11.3% 8.7% 8.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 10.3
11-9 9.8% 6.2% 6.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 9.2
10-10 8.4% 4.0% 4.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.1
9-11 6.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.6
8-12 5.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 5.3
7-13 3.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 3.5
6-14 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-15 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.3% 13.9% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 3.3 3.4 2.5 1.5 1.3 85.7 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.5 24.2 24.2 24.2 27.3