IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal Poly
Big West
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-10.7	#334
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	61.7	#332
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-9.2	#357

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.4	#220

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.5	15.6	15.5

.500 or above	3.5%	7.3%	1.9%
.500 or above in Conference	5.8%	9.5%	4.3%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	48.6%	38.6%	52.7%

First Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
First Round	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Away) - 29.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 4	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 10	2 - 15
Quad 4	6 - 9	7 - 24

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2023	307	@ Denver	L	63-69	29%
Nov 11, 2023	163	@ Wyoming	L	56-70	9%
Nov 17, 2023	276	St. Thomas	L	62-66	35%
Nov 18, 2023	211	Portland St.	L	65-73	22%
Nov 19, 2023	186	@ California Baptist	L	54-67	12%
Nov 29, 2023	147	San Jose St.	L	55-64	21%
Dec 02, 2023	354	@ Idaho	L	63-64	48%
Dec 04, 2023	118	@ Oregon St.	L	51-68	7%
Dec 09, 2023	160	@ Weber St.	L	54-68	11%
Dec 18, 2023	169	Eastern Washington	L	63-71	25%
Dec 21, 2023	296	Nebraska Omaha	L	66-67	48%
Dec 28, 2023	316	Cal St. Northridge	W	61-60	53%
Dec 30, 2023	173	@ UC Davis	L	59-73	12%
Jan 04, 2024	141	Long Beach St.	L	66-75	21%
Jan 06, 2024	150	UC Santa Barbara	L	58-67	23%
Jan 11, 2024	202	@ UC Riverside	L	57-69	16%
Jan 13, 2024	241	UC San Diego	L	63-66	39%
Jan 20, 2024	254	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	53-62	23%
Jan 25, 2024	161	Cal St. Fullerton	L	57-65	25%
Jan 28, 2024	142	@ Hawaii	L	52-67	10%
Feb 01, 2024	97	UC Irvine	L	58-70	15%
Feb 03, 2024	173	UC Davis	L	62-70	26%
Feb 08, 2024	316	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	58-63	34%
Feb 10, 2024	141	@ Long Beach St.	L	63-78	10%
Feb 15, 2024	142	Hawaii	L	55-64	22%
Feb 22, 2024	161	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	54-68	12%
Feb 24, 2024	202	UC Riverside	L	60-66	32%
Feb 29, 2024	150	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	55-70	11%
Mar 02, 2024	254	Cal St. Bakersfield	L	56-59	41%
Mar 07, 2024	97	@ UC Irvine	L	55-73	6%
Mar 09, 2024	241	@ UC San Diego	L	60-69	22%
Projected Record						7 - 24	5 - 15

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.4	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0							0.7	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0								1.2	4th
5th								0.0	0.0	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0								2.0	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	0.6	1.4	1.1	0.3	0.0										3.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.3	2.2	1.4	0.3	0.0	0.0										5.5	7th
8th					0.1	0.6	2.5	3.5	2.1	0.5	0.0												9.2	8th
9th			0.0	0.4	2.0	4.3	4.9	2.4	0.6	0.0													14.6	9th
10th		0.3	2.2	5.8	7.9	5.9	2.2	0.4	0.0														24.7	10th
11th	4.2	8.7	10.6	8.8	4.2	1.2	0.2	0.0															37.9	11th

Total	4.2	9.0	12.8	14.9	14.2	12.0	10.0	7.8	5.6	3.8	2.5	1.5	0.9	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0						Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3	91.7%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-4	75.2%	0.0		0.0	0.0
15-5	30.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
14-6	8.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.0%	0.0				0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3	0.0%																							0.0
16-4	0.1%		9.5%	9.5%		14.7														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
15-5	0.1%		14.3%	14.3%		14.2														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
14-6	0.3%		5.5%	5.5%		14.4														0.0		0.0	0.0	0.2
13-7	0.5%		8.3%	8.3%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5
12-8	0.9%		4.4%	4.4%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8
11-9	1.5%		1.5%	1.5%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5
10-10	2.5%		1.3%	1.3%		15.9																0.0	0.0	2.5
9-11	3.8%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	3.8
8-12	5.6%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	5.5
7-13	7.8%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	7.8
6-14	10.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.0
5-15	12.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	12.0
4-16	14.2%																							14.2
3-17	14.9%																							14.9
2-18	12.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	12.8
1-19	9.0%																							9.0
0-20	4.2%																							4.2

Total	100%		0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	99.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.1%