Preseason Rankings
Oregon St.
Pac-12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#118
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.3#335
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#174
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#92
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 1.6% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 8.6% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.8% 6.9% 1.7%
Average Seed 9.2 9.1 10.5
.500 or above 24.9% 29.0% 9.9%
.500 or above in Conference 13.5% 15.4% 6.7%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 35.7% 32.4% 47.7%
First Four1.8% 2.1% 0.8%
First Round6.3% 7.5% 2.0%
Second Round2.7% 3.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 78.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 9
Quad 23 - 54 - 14
Quad 33 - 27 - 16
Quad 45 - 112 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 218   Troy W 69-61 79%    
  Nov 14, 2023 153   Appalachian St. W 64-59 67%    
  Nov 18, 2023 67   Nebraska L 63-68 32%    
  Nov 22, 2023 14   Baylor L 61-73 15%    
  Nov 30, 2023 173   UC Davis W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 04, 2023 334   Cal Poly W 68-51 93%    
  Dec 09, 2023 164   Utah Valley W 70-65 69%    
  Dec 17, 2023 249   Texas San Antonio W 74-63 82%    
  Dec 21, 2023 290   Idaho St. W 70-57 86%    
  Dec 28, 2023 19   UCLA L 60-67 27%    
  Dec 30, 2023 18   USC L 63-71 25%    
  Jan 04, 2024 86   @ Washington St. L 59-65 30%    
  Jan 06, 2024 74   @ Washington L 64-71 27%    
  Jan 11, 2024 49   Stanford L 64-68 38%    
  Jan 18, 2024 62   @ Utah L 59-68 23%    
  Jan 20, 2024 33   @ Colorado L 61-73 16%    
  Jan 25, 2024 11   Arizona L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 27, 2024 65   Arizona St. L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 01, 2024 19   @ UCLA L 57-70 13%    
  Feb 03, 2024 18   @ USC L 60-74 13%    
  Feb 08, 2024 86   Washington St. L 62-63 49%    
  Feb 10, 2024 74   Washington L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 14, 2024 65   @ Arizona St. L 61-69 25%    
  Feb 17, 2024 35   Oregon L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 22, 2024 105   @ California L 59-63 37%    
  Feb 24, 2024 49   @ Stanford L 61-71 21%    
  Feb 28, 2024 35   @ Oregon L 60-71 17%    
  Mar 07, 2024 62   Utah L 62-65 41%    
  Mar 09, 2024 33   Colorado L 64-70 32%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.3 3.5 1.8 0.2 8.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.9 4.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.7 5.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 14.9 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 4.0 6.2 5.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 20.0 11th
12th 2.0 5.0 6.9 6.7 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 26.1 12th
Total 2.0 5.3 8.3 11.1 12.2 12.3 11.2 9.9 8.0 6.3 4.8 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 98.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 90.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 68.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 30.7% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 51.5% 48.5% 1.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.0% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.5% 96.7% 11.6% 85.0% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.2%
14-6 0.8% 93.1% 8.4% 84.7% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.4%
13-7 1.4% 80.5% 8.5% 72.1% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 78.7%
12-8 2.3% 59.5% 5.2% 54.2% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 57.2%
11-9 3.3% 36.3% 3.7% 32.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.1 33.9%
10-10 4.8% 18.8% 3.9% 14.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 15.5%
9-11 6.3% 6.3% 2.7% 3.5% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 3.6%
8-12 8.0% 2.2% 1.9% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.8 0.3%
7-13 9.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.7
6-14 11.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.0
5-15 12.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.3
4-16 12.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.1
3-17 11.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.0
2-18 8.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.3
1-19 5.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.2
0-20 2.0% 2.0
Total 100% 7.3% 1.6% 5.7% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 92.7 5.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%