Preseason Rankings
Utah
Pac-12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#62
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.0#231
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#82
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#43
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 2.6% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 7.0% 7.9% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 13.7% 15.2% 4.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.5% 39.5% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.5% 35.4% 15.3%
Average Seed 7.4 7.4 8.5
.500 or above 63.6% 67.7% 37.9%
.500 or above in Conference 50.1% 52.7% 33.3%
Conference Champion 4.9% 5.4% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 7.1% 6.1% 13.5%
First Four4.8% 5.0% 3.5%
First Round34.1% 36.9% 15.9%
Second Round19.6% 21.5% 7.8%
Sweet Sixteen8.1% 9.0% 2.4%
Elite Eight3.4% 3.8% 1.0%
Final Four1.4% 1.6% 0.4%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 86.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 24 - 37 - 11
Quad 35 - 212 - 13
Quad 44 - 016 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 169   Eastern Washington W 77-66 86%    
  Nov 10, 2023 202   UC Riverside W 74-61 90%    
  Nov 16, 2023 64   Wake Forest W 73-72 51%    
  Nov 27, 2023 26   @ St. Mary's L 58-65 27%    
  Nov 30, 2023 142   Hawaii W 69-59 81%    
  Dec 05, 2023 226   Southern Utah W 82-67 91%    
  Dec 09, 2023 50   BYU W 72-70 57%    
  Dec 16, 2023 164   Utah Valley W 76-65 84%    
  Dec 20, 2023 215   Bellarmine W 71-57 88%    
  Dec 29, 2023 86   Washington St. W 68-62 69%    
  Dec 31, 2023 74   Washington W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 04, 2024 65   @ Arizona St. L 67-70 42%    
  Jan 06, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 71-81 21%    
  Jan 11, 2024 19   UCLA L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 14, 2024 49   @ Stanford L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 18, 2024 118   Oregon St. W 68-59 77%    
  Jan 21, 2024 35   Oregon W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 24, 2024 86   @ Washington St. L 64-65 49%    
  Jan 27, 2024 74   @ Washington L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 03, 2024 33   Colorado L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 08, 2024 11   Arizona L 74-78 38%    
  Feb 10, 2024 65   Arizona St. W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 15, 2024 18   @ USC L 66-74 25%    
  Feb 18, 2024 19   @ UCLA L 62-70 27%    
  Feb 24, 2024 33   @ Colorado L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 29, 2024 49   Stanford W 69-67 56%    
  Mar 02, 2024 105   California W 67-59 74%    
  Mar 07, 2024 118   @ Oregon St. W 65-62 59%    
  Mar 09, 2024 35   @ Oregon L 65-71 32%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.1 2.6 0.6 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 8.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.8 5.8 7.0 9.1 9.8 10.6 10.9 9.8 8.5 6.7 5.6 3.8 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 96.2% 0.6    0.5 0.1
17-3 78.1% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
16-4 55.8% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 26.8% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 32.1% 67.9% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 31.1% 68.9% 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 2.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.4% 99.8% 18.1% 81.7% 3.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 3.8% 98.7% 14.1% 84.6% 4.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
14-6 5.6% 96.2% 13.2% 82.9% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 95.6%
13-7 6.7% 88.9% 10.3% 78.7% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.7 87.7%
12-8 8.5% 75.5% 9.4% 66.1% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.1 73.0%
11-9 9.8% 52.4% 6.1% 46.3% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 49.3%
10-10 10.9% 29.7% 4.5% 25.2% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 26.4%
9-11 10.6% 11.2% 3.5% 7.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.4 8.0%
8-12 9.8% 3.2% 2.6% 0.6% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.5 0.6%
7-13 9.1% 2.4% 2.3% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.9 0.1%
6-14 7.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.9
5-15 5.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.7
4-16 3.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
3-17 2.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.3
2-18 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 36.5% 5.9% 30.6% 7.4 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.7 4.8 4.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 63.5 32.5%