Preseason Rankings
Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#226
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace77.4#19
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#169
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#279
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 4.3% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.6
.500 or above 23.7% 34.9% 14.5%
.500 or above in Conference 32.3% 40.5% 25.6%
Conference Champion 2.7% 4.2% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 19.1% 13.7% 23.5%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
First Round2.8% 4.0% 1.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Away) - 45.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 84 - 13
Quad 47 - 411 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 254   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 69-70 45%    
  Nov 14, 2023 83   @ Utah St. L 73-86 12%    
  Nov 21, 2023 120   @ Louisiana Tech L 71-80 20%    
  Nov 22, 2023 193   Texas St. L 70-72 42%    
  Nov 29, 2023 186   California Baptist W 73-72 51%    
  Dec 02, 2023 126   @ Seattle L 73-82 22%    
  Dec 05, 2023 62   @ Utah L 67-82 9%    
  Dec 09, 2023 290   Idaho St. W 77-70 71%    
  Dec 16, 2023 231   @ Northern Arizona L 77-80 40%    
  Dec 19, 2023 225   @ Montana St. L 73-76 40%    
  Dec 22, 2023 137   Middle Tennessee L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 04, 2024 93   Grand Canyon L 72-78 32%    
  Jan 06, 2024 164   @ Utah Valley L 76-83 28%    
  Jan 13, 2024 115   Stephen F. Austin L 78-82 38%    
  Jan 18, 2024 210   Utah Tech W 60-58 56%    
  Jan 20, 2024 186   @ California Baptist L 69-75 32%    
  Jan 25, 2024 214   @ Tarleton St. L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 27, 2024 168   @ Abilene Christian L 76-83 29%    
  Feb 01, 2024 200   Texas Arlington W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 03, 2024 263   UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-82 67%    
  Feb 08, 2024 210   @ Utah Tech L 57-61 37%    
  Feb 10, 2024 93   @ Grand Canyon L 69-81 17%    
  Feb 15, 2024 126   Seattle L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 17, 2024 164   Utah Valley L 79-80 47%    
  Feb 22, 2024 200   @ Texas Arlington L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 29, 2024 168   Abilene Christian L 79-80 48%    
  Mar 02, 2024 214   Tarleton St. W 76-74 57%    
  Mar 07, 2024 115   @ Stephen F. Austin L 75-85 21%    
  Mar 09, 2024 263   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 84-85 48%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 3.0 1.0 0.1 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.8 3.2 1.0 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.5 3.9 1.2 0.1 11.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.4 4.6 3.6 1.0 0.1 12.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.6 4.6 2.9 0.9 0.1 14.0 10th
11th 0.4 1.5 2.8 3.5 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 13.1 11th
Total 0.4 1.5 3.2 5.0 7.1 8.8 10.0 10.8 10.6 10.2 8.4 7.3 5.8 4.2 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 99.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 87.5% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 64.6% 0.7    0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 37.5% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 59.7% 33.1% 26.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.8%
18-2 0.2% 45.1% 44.6% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9%
17-3 0.6% 29.2% 27.2% 2.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.8%
16-4 1.1% 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.1%
15-5 1.8% 14.5% 14.5% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5
14-6 3.0% 13.2% 13.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.6
13-7 4.2% 7.7% 7.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.9
12-8 5.8% 5.4% 5.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.5
11-9 7.3% 5.5% 5.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.9
10-10 8.4% 3.2% 3.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.1
9-11 10.2% 2.2% 2.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.0
8-12 10.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.5
7-13 10.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.7
6-14 10.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.0
5-15 8.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.8
4-16 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.1
3-17 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.0
2-18 3.2% 3.2
1-19 1.5% 1.5
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%