Preseason Rankings
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#137
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.0#206
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#154
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#129
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.7% 13.6% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.3% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.6 12.3 13.6
.500 or above 60.0% 68.5% 40.7%
.500 or above in Conference 61.1% 65.9% 50.0%
Conference Champion 13.3% 15.8% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 9.2% 7.4% 13.4%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
First Round11.1% 13.0% 6.8%
Second Round2.5% 3.1% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Home) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 36 - 57 - 10
Quad 48 - 215 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 183   Northern Kentucky W 67-61 70%    
  Nov 09, 2023 115   Stephen F. Austin W 73-71 56%    
  Nov 13, 2023 205   Western Carolina W 75-68 73%    
  Nov 21, 2023 77   UAB L 73-75 43%    
  Nov 24, 2023 244   Illinois-Chicago W 74-68 72%    
  Dec 02, 2023 242   Wofford W 74-65 79%    
  Dec 05, 2023 143   Missouri St. W 65-62 61%    
  Dec 09, 2023 128   Belmont W 74-71 58%    
  Dec 19, 2023 26   @ St. Mary's L 56-70 12%    
  Dec 22, 2023 226   @ Southern Utah W 77-75 57%    
  Dec 30, 2023 154   @ Murray St. L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 11, 2024 120   Louisiana Tech W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 13, 2024 117   Sam Houston St. W 66-64 57%    
  Jan 18, 2024 155   @ UTEP L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 20, 2024 167   @ New Mexico St. L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 24, 2024 221   Jacksonville St. W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 27, 2024 196   Florida International W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 03, 2024 172   @ Western Kentucky L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 08, 2024 84   @ Liberty L 63-70 27%    
  Feb 10, 2024 196   @ Florida International W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 15, 2024 167   New Mexico St. W 75-70 64%    
  Feb 17, 2024 155   UTEP W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 21, 2024 221   @ Jacksonville St. W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 24, 2024 172   Western Kentucky W 72-67 66%    
  Mar 02, 2024 117   @ Sam Houston St. L 63-67 37%    
  Mar 05, 2024 84   Liberty L 66-67 45%    
  Mar 09, 2024 120   @ Louisiana Tech L 67-71 37%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.4 3.7 2.5 1.2 0.3 13.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.2 3.5 1.0 0.1 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.5 5.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.8 5.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.5 5.1 1.4 0.1 11.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 4.0 4.7 1.3 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.8 1.1 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.9 2.8 0.9 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.5 9th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.0 5.2 7.5 9.5 11.3 12.1 12.2 11.1 9.4 7.4 4.8 2.7 1.2 0.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.0
14-2 94.8% 2.5    2.2 0.4
13-3 78.1% 3.7    2.7 1.0 0.1
12-4 46.7% 3.4    1.6 1.6 0.3 0.0
11-5 18.6% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 8.2 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 88.1% 60.4% 27.6% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.8%
15-1 1.2% 68.2% 48.7% 19.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 38.1%
14-2 2.7% 50.2% 39.1% 11.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 18.1%
13-3 4.8% 36.0% 32.4% 3.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.1 5.4%
12-4 7.4% 23.9% 23.1% 0.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.6 1.0%
11-5 9.4% 16.8% 16.7% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.8 0.1%
10-6 11.1% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.8 0.0%
9-7 12.2% 9.0% 9.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 11.1
8-8 12.1% 6.5% 6.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 11.3
7-9 11.3% 4.4% 4.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.8
6-10 9.5% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.3
5-11 7.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.4
4-12 5.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.2
3-13 3.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.0
2-14 1.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7
1-15 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.7% 10.8% 0.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.0 2.3 1.5 1.1 1.1 88.3 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.7 1.7 26.7 30.0 28.3 13.3