Preseason Rankings
Conference USA
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
84 Liberty 32.9%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 9 11 - 5 +6.3      +2.3 109 +4.0 65 62.6 317 0.0 1 0.0 1
117 Sam Houston St. 15.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 7 +2.9      -0.5 195 +3.4 80 62.5 319 0.0 1 0.0 1
120 Louisiana Tech 15.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 9 - 7 +2.7      +1.1 140 +1.7 119 66.4 219 0.0 1 0.0 1
137 Middle Tennessee 11.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 8 - 8 +1.9      +0.5 154 +1.4 129 67.0 206 0.0 1 0.0 1
155 UTEP 9.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 8 - 8 +0.8      -1.9 244 +2.8 93 67.4 190 0.0 1 0.0 1
167 New Mexico St. 8.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 15 8 - 8 +0.4      +0.6 150 -0.2 183 71.7 86 0.0 1 0.0 1
172 Western Kentucky 7.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 7 - 9 0.0      -0.1 182 +0.1 166 68.1 172 0.0 1 0.0 1
196 Florida International 5.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 9 -1.3      -0.4 192 -0.9 204 74.3 40 0.0 1 0.0 1
221 Jacksonville St. 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 6 - 10 -3.0      -2.0 246 -1.0 208 64.3 278 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Liberty 2.7 39.2 20.5 13.2 9.3 6.6 4.8 3.2 2.1 1.1
Sam Houston St. 4.0 18.2 16.5 14.2 12.4 11.3 9.3 8.1 6.0 3.9
Louisiana Tech 4.0 17.1 16.2 14.2 13.2 11.3 9.4 7.8 6.3 4.4
Middle Tennessee 4.4 13.3 14.0 13.6 13.1 11.9 11.0 9.5 8.0 5.5
UTEP 4.8 10.2 11.9 12.5 12.5 12.0 11.8 11.1 9.9 8.1
New Mexico St. 5.0 9.2 10.7 11.8 11.9 12.6 12.0 11.9 11.0 9.0
Western Kentucky 5.2 7.9 10.0 10.8 11.5 12.5 12.3 12.8 12.0 10.3
Florida International 5.8 5.1 7.1 8.6 10.1 11.6 13.2 14.4 15.2 14.8
Jacksonville St. 6.4 2.7 4.4 6.2 8.0 10.4 12.1 14.6 18.2 23.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Liberty 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.5 5.4 7.3 10.1 11.8 13.6 13.3 12.1 10.0 6.3 2.5
Sam Houston St. 9 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.9 6.0 8.0 10.2 11.6 11.9 12.1 10.9 9.0 6.4 4.2 1.8 0.5
Louisiana Tech 9 - 7 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.0 6.0 8.1 10.0 12.0 12.1 12.3 10.5 8.6 6.2 3.6 1.8 0.5
Middle Tennessee 8 - 8 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.0 5.2 7.5 9.5 11.3 12.1 12.2 11.1 9.4 7.4 4.8 2.7 1.2 0.3
UTEP 8 - 8 0.3 1.2 2.4 4.4 6.6 8.8 10.8 11.6 12.1 11.1 10.3 8.0 5.8 3.6 2.0 0.7 0.2
New Mexico St. 8 - 8 0.4 1.2 3.0 5.1 7.3 9.3 10.9 12.1 12.2 11.1 9.4 7.2 5.0 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.2
Western Kentucky 7 - 9 0.4 1.6 3.4 5.5 8.1 10.1 11.5 12.7 11.7 10.4 8.5 6.7 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1
Florida International 7 - 9 0.8 2.4 5.1 8.0 10.0 11.8 13.0 12.2 10.7 8.9 6.8 4.7 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1
Jacksonville St. 6 - 10 1.7 4.8 7.6 10.7 12.7 12.6 12.7 11.2 9.1 6.8 4.5 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 39.2% 28.9 8.2 1.8 0.3 0.0
Sam Houston St. 18.2% 11.8 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
Louisiana Tech 17.1% 11.1 4.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
Middle Tennessee 13.3% 8.2 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
UTEP 10.2% 6.2 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
New Mexico St. 9.2% 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
Western Kentucky 7.9% 4.8 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
Florida International 5.1% 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 2.7% 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 32.9% 29.6% 3.3% 12   0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 2.3 7.1 9.0 4.8 2.3 1.2 0.8 67.1 4.7%
Sam Houston St. 15.4% 14.1% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 2.6 4.1 2.7 1.5 1.1 1.3 84.6 1.5%
Louisiana Tech 15.2% 13.9% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.4 4.2 2.8 1.8 1.0 1.1 84.8 1.5%
Middle Tennessee 11.7% 10.8% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.0 2.3 1.5 1.1 1.1 88.3 0.9%
UTEP 9.4% 9.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.1 1.4 1.1 1.0 90.6 0.5%
New Mexico St. 8.2% 7.8% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.6 91.8 0.5%
Western Kentucky 7.3% 7.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.8 1.1 92.7 0.3%
Florida International 5.0% 4.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.0 95.0 0.2%
Jacksonville St. 3.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 96.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 32.9% 1.9% 32.1% 10.8% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Sam Houston St. 15.4% 1.5% 14.7% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 15.2% 1.5% 14.5% 3.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 11.7% 1.2% 11.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 9.4% 1.0% 9.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 8.2% 1.5% 7.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 7.3% 1.0% 6.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 5.0% 0.9% 4.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.1% 0.7% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 92.0 7.8 0.2
1st Round 97.4% 1.0 2.6 91.5 5.8 0.1
2nd Round 24.2% 0.2 75.8 23.7 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 7.6% 0.1 92.4 7.6 0.0
Elite Eight 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2 0.0
Final Four 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6 0.0
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1