Preseason Rankings
Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#172
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.1#172
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#182
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#166
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 11.5% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.2 12.6 13.6
.500 or above 44.0% 66.2% 37.5%
.500 or above in Conference 46.7% 61.0% 42.6%
Conference Champion 7.9% 12.8% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 15.8% 8.9% 17.9%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.0%
First Round6.9% 11.2% 5.7%
Second Round1.0% 1.8% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 22.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 76 - 12
Quad 47 - 313 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 95   @ Wichita St. L 65-73 23%    
  Nov 14, 2023 154   @ Murray St. L 69-73 36%    
  Nov 24, 2023 235   Bowling Green W 77-73 64%    
  Nov 25, 2023 269   Canisius W 74-68 70%    
  Nov 26, 2023 170   UNC Asheville L 71-72 50%    
  Dec 03, 2023 134   Eastern Kentucky W 76-75 53%    
  Dec 09, 2023 216   @ Buffalo L 76-77 48%    
  Dec 12, 2023 131   @ Wright St. L 74-79 31%    
  Dec 16, 2023 236   Austin Peay W 72-65 72%    
  Dec 19, 2023 186   @ California Baptist L 66-68 43%    
  Dec 30, 2023 168   Abilene Christian W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 06, 2024 84   Liberty L 65-68 39%    
  Jan 10, 2024 117   @ Sam Houston St. L 63-69 31%    
  Jan 13, 2024 221   Jacksonville St. W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 18, 2024 167   @ New Mexico St. L 71-74 38%    
  Jan 20, 2024 155   @ UTEP L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 25, 2024 196   Florida International W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 01, 2024 117   Sam Houston St. W 66-65 50%    
  Feb 03, 2024 137   Middle Tennessee W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 07, 2024 120   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-72 31%    
  Feb 10, 2024 221   @ Jacksonville St. W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 15, 2024 155   UTEP W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 17, 2024 167   New Mexico St. W 74-71 58%    
  Feb 24, 2024 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 28, 2024 120   Louisiana Tech W 70-69 51%    
  Mar 02, 2024 196   @ Florida International L 73-75 44%    
  Mar 09, 2024 84   @ Liberty L 62-71 23%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.3 2.3 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 7.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.7 2.1 0.6 0.1 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.9 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.6 4.6 1.3 0.1 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.2 5.0 1.2 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.8 5.1 1.2 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.8 4.8 1.3 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.2 4.5 3.6 1.0 0.1 12.0 8th
9th 0.4 1.5 2.9 3.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 10.3 9th
Total 0.4 1.6 3.4 5.5 8.1 10.1 11.5 12.7 11.7 10.4 8.5 6.7 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
14-2 94.1% 1.3    1.2 0.1
13-3 78.1% 2.1    1.5 0.5 0.0
12-4 49.1% 2.3    1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-5 18.9% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
10-6 3.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.8 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 91.0% 75.0% 16.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.8%
15-1 0.5% 56.0% 44.1% 12.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.4%
14-2 1.4% 44.9% 38.8% 6.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 9.9%
13-3 2.7% 31.0% 29.1% 1.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.8 2.7%
12-4 4.7% 20.1% 19.8% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.4%
11-5 6.7% 14.9% 14.8% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.1%
10-6 8.5% 12.3% 12.3% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.5
9-7 10.4% 8.0% 8.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 9.6
8-8 11.7% 5.9% 5.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 11.0
7-9 12.7% 3.4% 3.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 12.2
6-10 11.5% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.3
5-11 10.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.0
4-12 8.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.0
3-13 5.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.4
2-14 3.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.4
1-15 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
0-16 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
Total 100% 7.3% 7.1% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.8 1.1 92.7 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%