Preseason Rankings
Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#168
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.6#88
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#163
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#180
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 14.8% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 1.4% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.1 12.1 13.4
.500 or above 52.7% 77.6% 48.9%
.500 or above in Conference 59.8% 76.3% 57.3%
Conference Champion 9.4% 17.7% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 2.7% 7.5%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 1.0%
First Round8.2% 14.2% 7.3%
Second Round1.3% 3.3% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 1.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 13.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 55 - 11
Quad 48 - 314 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 59   @ Oklahoma St. L 65-77 13%    
  Nov 10, 2023 61   @ North Carolina St. L 70-82 14%    
  Nov 14, 2023 326   Prairie View W 78-65 87%    
  Nov 17, 2023 147   San Jose St. L 67-68 46%    
  Nov 29, 2023 200   @ Texas Arlington L 70-71 46%    
  Dec 02, 2023 115   Stephen F. Austin L 75-76 50%    
  Dec 06, 2023 231   Northern Arizona W 78-71 72%    
  Dec 17, 2023 155   UTEP W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 21, 2023 17   @ Arkansas L 67-84 8%    
  Dec 30, 2023 172   @ Western Kentucky L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 06, 2024 263   UT Rio Grande Valley W 84-75 77%    
  Jan 11, 2024 93   @ Grand Canyon L 67-75 25%    
  Jan 13, 2024 186   @ California Baptist L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 18, 2024 214   @ Tarleton St. L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 20, 2024 200   Texas Arlington W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 25, 2024 210   Utah Tech W 58-53 67%    
  Jan 27, 2024 226   Southern Utah W 83-76 71%    
  Feb 01, 2024 214   Tarleton St. W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 08, 2024 126   @ Seattle L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 10, 2024 164   @ Utah Valley L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 15, 2024 263   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 81-78 59%    
  Feb 17, 2024 115   @ Stephen F. Austin L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 22, 2024 186   California Baptist W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 24, 2024 93   Grand Canyon L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 29, 2024 226   @ Southern Utah W 80-79 52%    
  Mar 02, 2024 210   @ Utah Tech L 55-56 48%    
  Mar 07, 2024 126   Seattle W 74-73 53%    
  Mar 09, 2024 164   Utah Valley W 76-73 59%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 9.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.6 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.2 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.5 4.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 4.0 1.4 0.1 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 3.7 1.2 0.1 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 3.2 1.1 0.1 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 5.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.6 4.0 5.6 7.3 8.5 9.4 10.2 10.0 10.2 8.5 7.3 5.6 3.8 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 96.9% 1.2    1.1 0.1
17-3 85.6% 2.1    1.6 0.4 0.0
16-4 61.1% 2.3    1.4 0.8 0.1
15-5 36.7% 2.0    0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 13.2% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 5.9 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 82.5% 58.2% 24.3% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.1%
19-1 0.5% 68.0% 45.6% 22.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 41.2%
18-2 1.2% 49.8% 42.5% 7.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 12.7%
17-3 2.4% 33.3% 30.7% 2.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 3.8%
16-4 3.8% 26.8% 26.4% 0.4% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.8 0.5%
15-5 5.6% 21.4% 21.3% 0.1% 12.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.1%
14-6 7.3% 16.2% 16.2% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.1
13-7 8.5% 11.3% 11.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.5
12-8 10.2% 8.4% 8.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.3
11-9 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.5
10-10 10.2% 4.3% 4.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.7
9-11 9.4% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.2
8-12 8.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.4
7-13 7.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 7.2
6-14 5.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.6
5-15 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.0
4-16 2.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-17 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-18 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.6% 8.3% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.0 1.1 91.4 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%