Preseason Rankings
Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#59
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.5#167
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#102
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#25
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.2% 2.5% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 6.5% 7.2% 1.7%
Top 6 Seed 12.6% 13.9% 4.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.7% 36.3% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.1% 33.7% 14.7%
Average Seed 7.3 7.2 8.2
.500 or above 74.3% 78.1% 49.1%
.500 or above in Conference 36.6% 38.9% 21.8%
Conference Champion 2.4% 2.6% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.3% 12.9% 23.7%
First Four3.8% 4.0% 2.7%
First Round31.8% 34.3% 15.2%
Second Round19.1% 20.8% 7.6%
Sweet Sixteen8.1% 8.9% 2.6%
Elite Eight3.6% 4.0% 1.1%
Final Four1.5% 1.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Home) - 86.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 23 - 36 - 11
Quad 34 - 110 - 12
Quad 47 - 017 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 168   Abilene Christian W 77-65 87%    
  Nov 12, 2023 117   Sam Houston St. W 69-60 80%    
  Nov 16, 2023 78   St. Bonaventure W 67-65 58%    
  Nov 20, 2023 299   New Orleans W 85-65 96%    
  Nov 24, 2023 360   Houston Christian W 89-62 99%    
  Nov 30, 2023 8   Creighton L 68-72 37%    
  Dec 05, 2023 171   @ Southern Illinois W 66-60 70%    
  Dec 10, 2023 233   Tulsa W 77-64 87%    
  Dec 17, 2023 175   Oral Roberts W 81-69 85%    
  Dec 20, 2023 242   Wofford W 76-60 92%    
  Dec 31, 2023 345   South Carolina St. W 87-63 98%    
  Jan 03, 2024 324   Chicago St. W 78-56 97%    
  Jan 06, 2024 14   Baylor L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 09, 2024 41   @ Texas Tech L 66-71 35%    
  Jan 13, 2024 40   @ Iowa St. L 61-66 34%    
  Jan 16, 2024 1   Kansas L 68-75 28%    
  Jan 20, 2024 32   @ Kansas St. L 69-75 32%    
  Jan 23, 2024 24   TCU L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 27, 2024 63   West Virginia W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 30, 2024 1   @ Kansas L 65-78 14%    
  Feb 03, 2024 32   Kansas St. W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 06, 2024 4   @ Houston L 59-70 19%    
  Feb 10, 2024 53   @ Oklahoma L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 17, 2024 50   BYU W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 21, 2024 58   @ Cincinnati L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 24, 2024 53   Oklahoma W 68-65 58%    
  Feb 28, 2024 81   Central Florida W 68-62 68%    
  Mar 02, 2024 15   @ Texas L 66-74 25%    
  Mar 05, 2024 41   Texas Tech W 69-68 54%    
  Mar 09, 2024 50   @ BYU L 70-74 39%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 2.9 0.7 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 3.7 1.0 0.1 7.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.5 2.0 0.1 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.1 0.8 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.4 1.5 0.1 9.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.2 2.1 0.2 9.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 9.6 13th
14th 0.5 1.4 2.6 2.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 8.7 14th
Total 0.5 1.4 3.5 5.6 8.2 10.0 11.2 11.7 11.3 10.0 8.6 6.6 4.8 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 99.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 94.5% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 68.4% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 39.1% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 32.0% 68.0% 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 38.2% 61.8% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.9% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 2.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.9% 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 3.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.2% 99.3% 10.0% 89.2% 4.4 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
12-6 4.8% 97.7% 6.5% 91.1% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.5%
11-7 6.6% 92.1% 6.7% 85.4% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 91.5%
10-8 8.6% 77.7% 5.8% 72.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.9 76.4%
9-9 10.0% 55.0% 4.8% 50.2% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.5 52.7%
8-10 11.3% 24.2% 2.7% 21.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 22.1%
7-11 11.7% 7.2% 2.7% 4.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9 4.6%
6-12 11.2% 2.5% 2.0% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.9 0.4%
5-13 10.0% 1.3% 1.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9
4-14 8.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1
3-15 5.6% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 5.6
2-16 3.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.4
1-17 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 33.7% 3.7% 30.0% 7.3 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.3 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 66.3 31.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 67.3 16.3 16.3