Preseason Rankings
Oklahoma
Big 12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#53
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.1#283
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#68
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#42
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 2.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 6.8% 6.9% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 13.5% 13.7% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.2% 35.6% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.5% 33.0% 11.1%
Average Seed 7.2 7.2 8.5
.500 or above 72.5% 73.3% 34.5%
.500 or above in Conference 37.5% 38.0% 14.8%
Conference Champion 2.5% 2.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.2% 12.8% 30.1%
First Four3.7% 3.7% 1.4%
First Round33.4% 33.9% 11.8%
Second Round20.2% 20.5% 6.1%
Sweet Sixteen8.4% 8.5% 2.2%
Elite Eight3.8% 3.8% 1.1%
Final Four1.6% 1.6% 0.6%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 24 - 37 - 12
Quad 32 - 110 - 13
Quad 47 - 017 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 323   Central Michigan W 78-56 98%    
  Nov 10, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 81-51 99.7%   
  Nov 14, 2023 193   Texas St. W 70-56 89%    
  Nov 17, 2023 263   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-65 94%    
  Nov 23, 2023 42   Iowa L 74-75 45%    
  Nov 30, 2023 346   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-58 98%    
  Dec 05, 2023 46   Providence W 69-67 58%    
  Dec 09, 2023 17   Arkansas L 68-72 35%    
  Dec 16, 2023 340   Green Bay W 78-55 98%    
  Dec 20, 2023 16   North Carolina L 68-73 35%    
  Dec 28, 2023 336   Central Arkansas W 86-63 98%    
  Dec 31, 2023 311   Monmouth W 78-57 96%    
  Jan 06, 2024 40   Iowa St. W 63-62 55%    
  Jan 09, 2024 24   @ TCU L 67-73 29%    
  Jan 13, 2024 1   @ Kansas L 64-77 14%    
  Jan 17, 2024 63   West Virginia W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 20, 2024 58   @ Cincinnati L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 23, 2024 15   Texas L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 27, 2024 41   Texas Tech W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 30, 2024 32   @ Kansas St. L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 03, 2024 81   @ Central Florida L 64-65 50%    
  Feb 06, 2024 50   BYU W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 10, 2024 59   Oklahoma St. W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 13, 2024 14   @ Baylor L 66-74 26%    
  Feb 17, 2024 1   Kansas L 67-74 29%    
  Feb 24, 2024 59   @ Oklahoma St. L 65-68 42%    
  Feb 28, 2024 40   @ Iowa St. L 60-65 36%    
  Mar 02, 2024 4   Houston L 62-66 36%    
  Mar 05, 2024 58   Cincinnati W 71-68 61%    
  Mar 09, 2024 15   @ Texas L 65-73 26%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 3.8 1.3 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.4 1.9 0.1 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.2 3.1 0.3 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.1 1.0 0.0 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.6 1.6 0.1 9.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.2 2.0 0.2 9.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.1 13th
14th 0.4 1.2 2.3 2.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.8 14th
Total 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.4 7.8 9.8 11.3 11.9 11.5 9.8 8.9 6.9 5.1 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 89.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 71.9% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-4 37.6% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.7% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 1.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.0% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 2.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.9% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 3.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.3% 99.7% 9.9% 89.8% 4.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 5.1% 98.7% 7.3% 91.4% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.6%
11-7 6.9% 92.3% 6.4% 85.9% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 91.8%
10-8 8.9% 79.0% 5.9% 73.1% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.9 77.7%
9-9 9.8% 55.5% 4.2% 51.3% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.4 53.6%
8-10 11.5% 25.5% 3.7% 21.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 22.6%
7-11 11.9% 8.1% 2.3% 5.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9 6.0%
6-12 11.3% 2.6% 2.0% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.0 0.6%
5-13 9.8% 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.7 0.0%
4-14 7.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.7
3-15 5.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
2-16 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.1
1-17 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
0-18 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
Total 100% 35.2% 3.9% 31.3% 7.2 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.6 4.4 4.3 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 64.8 32.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0