Preseason Rankings
Big 12
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Kansas 94.9%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 6 13 - 5 +19.2      +10.0 4 +9.2 4 71.8 84 0.0 1 0.0 1
4 Houston 86.5%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 12 - 6 +16.8      +7.6 16 +9.2 3 60.8 341 0.0 1 0.0 1
14 Baylor 74.6%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 10 - 8 +14.4      +9.4 6 +5.0 49 67.4 191 0.0 1 0.0 1
15 Texas 72.6%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 11 - 7 +14.3      +7.0 23 +7.3 17 70.7 116 0.0 1 0.0 1
24 TCU 59.9%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 10 - 8 +12.7      +5.8 36 +6.9 21 73.3 50 0.0 1 0.0 1
32 Kansas St. 59.2%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +11.8      +6.0 33 +5.8 36 73.5 46 0.0 1 0.0 1
40 Iowa St. 47.0%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 9 - 9 +11.0      +2.5 101 +8.4 6 62.0 326 0.0 1 0.0 1
41 Texas Tech 48.5%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 8 - 10 +10.7      +4.6 53 +6.1 31 68.5 166 0.0 1 0.0 1
50 BYU 40.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 8 - 10 +9.6      +5.0 49 +4.6 56 72.9 56 0.0 1 0.0 1
53 Oklahoma 35.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 +9.4      +3.9 68 +5.4 42 64.1 283 0.0 1 0.0 1
58 Cincinnati 34.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 8 - 10 +9.1      +4.4 55 +4.7 54 70.8 113 0.0 1 0.0 1
59 Oklahoma St. 33.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 7 - 11 +9.1      +2.5 102 +6.5 25 68.5 167 0.0 1 0.0 1
63 West Virginia 32.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 7 - 11 +8.4      +5.1 47 +3.4 81 70.6 118 0.0 1 0.0 1
81 Central Florida 18.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 6 - 12 +6.5      +1.9 123 +4.7 55 63.2 303 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Kansas 2.9 40.3 18.6 12.1 8.2 6.1 4.2 3.2 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2
Houston 4.0 23.7 17.7 13.3 10.6 8.2 6.5 5.2 4.3 3.3 2.7 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.5
Baylor 5.5 12.8 12.5 11.2 10.3 9.2 8.5 7.3 6.5 5.5 5.1 4.1 3.3 2.5 1.4
Texas 5.4 12.2 13.1 12.1 10.6 9.4 8.3 7.6 6.4 5.5 4.8 3.7 2.9 2.3 1.2
TCU 6.2 8.3 10.3 9.9 9.8 9.6 8.8 8.2 7.2 6.4 5.7 5.4 4.5 3.5 2.4
Kansas St. 6.8 6.1 8.1 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.8 8.6 8.0 7.6 7.0 6.2 5.4 4.6 3.3
Iowa St. 7.5 4.4 6.2 7.0 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.4 8.2 7.9 7.9 7.7 7.1 6.3 4.8
Texas Tech 7.6 4.5 6.1 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.2 8.6 8.4 7.9 8.0 7.5 7.2 6.7 4.9
BYU 8.1 3.2 5.1 6.0 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.0 8.1 6.6
Oklahoma 8.6 2.5 3.8 4.7 5.7 6.7 7.1 7.8 8.1 8.5 9.2 9.7 9.3 9.1 7.8
Cincinnati 8.5 2.3 4.1 5.1 6.1 7.0 7.5 7.9 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.7 9.0 8.8 8.0
Oklahoma St. 8.7 2.4 3.5 4.7 5.5 6.6 7.1 7.2 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.6 8.7
West Virginia 8.9 1.9 3.3 4.4 5.2 5.7 6.7 7.3 8.1 8.6 9.4 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.1
Central Florida 10.1 0.9 1.8 2.5 3.1 3.9 5.0 5.8 6.9 7.7 9.2 10.3 11.6 13.9 17.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kansas 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 3.0 4.4 6.5 8.5 10.9 12.6 13.8 13.6 11.7 7.9 3.3
Houston 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.9 5.5 7.5 9.1 11.2 12.2 12.8 11.8 9.6 6.6 3.6 1.2
Baylor 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.2 7.1 8.7 10.1 10.9 11.4 11.0 9.7 8.1 5.3 3.4 1.4 0.4
Texas 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.7 6.8 8.9 10.0 11.2 11.7 11.4 10.1 7.9 5.6 3.4 1.4 0.4
TCU 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.7 7.9 9.8 11.1 11.8 10.7 10.2 8.0 6.2 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.2
Kansas St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.0 5.8 7.6 10.1 10.8 11.6 11.0 10.1 8.8 6.8 4.6 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1
Iowa St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.7 7.2 9.4 10.4 11.4 11.5 10.2 9.1 7.1 5.0 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1
Texas Tech 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.5 5.6 7.7 9.3 10.7 11.4 11.3 10.4 8.4 6.9 5.2 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
BYU 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.4 6.4 8.8 10.3 11.0 11.4 10.6 9.5 7.8 6.2 4.3 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
Oklahoma 8 - 10 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.4 7.8 9.8 11.3 11.9 11.5 9.8 8.9 6.9 5.1 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Cincinnati 8 - 10 0.4 1.2 3.0 5.2 7.4 9.7 10.6 11.4 11.6 10.7 8.9 7.3 5.4 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma St. 7 - 11 0.5 1.4 3.5 5.6 8.2 10.0 11.2 11.7 11.3 10.0 8.6 6.6 4.8 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
West Virginia 7 - 11 0.6 2.0 3.8 6.3 8.6 10.1 11.5 11.9 11.1 9.8 7.9 6.3 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 6 - 12 1.3 3.6 6.9 9.6 11.2 12.3 12.0 11.1 9.6 7.6 5.4 3.9 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kansas 40.3% 29.4 8.6 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Houston 23.7% 15.7 6.0 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Baylor 12.8% 7.9 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.1
Texas 12.2% 7.4 3.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
TCU 8.3% 4.5 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
Kansas St. 6.1% 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Iowa St. 4.4% 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas Tech 4.5% 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
BYU 3.2% 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma 2.5% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 2.3% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
West Virginia 1.9% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kansas 94.9% 22.1% 72.7% 1   34.8 20.4 11.7 7.8 5.9 4.3 3.3 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 93.4%
Houston 86.5% 14.7% 71.7% 2   17.6 14.9 11.4 9.9 7.5 6.3 5.3 4.4 3.6 3.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 84.1%
Baylor 74.6% 10.0% 64.6% 4   9.7 9.3 9.4 8.6 7.5 7.1 6.2 5.1 3.9 3.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 25.4 71.8%
Texas 72.6% 9.8% 62.8% 4   7.7 8.3 8.3 8.1 7.4 6.8 6.5 5.9 5.0 4.8 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 27.4 69.6%
TCU 59.9% 7.0% 52.8% 7   3.9 4.8 5.6 5.8 6.1 5.6 6.2 6.5 5.7 5.4 3.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 40.1 56.8%
Kansas St. 59.2% 6.1% 53.1% 6   3.7 5.0 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.6 4.9 4.6 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 40.8 56.6%
Iowa St. 47.0% 5.0% 42.0% 11   1.8 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.4 4.6 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.3 3.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 53.0 44.2%
Texas Tech 48.5% 5.0% 43.5% 9   2.3 2.9 4.1 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.7 3.9 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 51.5 45.8%
BYU 40.9% 4.0% 37.0% 1.2 2.0 2.7 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.7 3.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 59.1 38.5%
Oklahoma 35.2% 3.9% 31.3% 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.6 4.4 4.3 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 64.8 32.5%
Cincinnati 34.7% 3.6% 31.1% 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.7 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 65.3 32.3%
Oklahoma St. 33.7% 3.7% 30.0% 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.3 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 66.3 31.1%
West Virginia 32.8% 3.0% 29.8% 0.7 1.1 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.1 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 67.2 30.7%
Central Florida 18.7% 2.1% 16.6% 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 81.3 16.9%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kansas 94.9% 1.3% 94.3% 84.4% 61.5% 40.9% 25.5% 15.7% 9.4%
Houston 86.5% 2.5% 85.3% 70.3% 45.6% 27.4% 15.8% 8.8% 4.8%
Baylor 74.6% 3.6% 72.9% 56.0% 32.7% 17.6% 9.2% 4.7% 2.3%
Texas 72.6% 3.8% 70.8% 53.2% 30.0% 16.0% 8.4% 4.2% 2.1%
TCU 59.9% 4.0% 58.0% 40.3% 20.5% 10.2% 4.9% 2.1% 1.0%
Kansas St. 59.2% 4.7% 56.9% 38.7% 19.5% 9.3% 4.2% 2.0% 0.9%
Iowa St. 47.0% 4.8% 44.6% 28.5% 13.3% 6.2% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Texas Tech 48.5% 4.6% 46.1% 29.6% 14.0% 6.4% 2.9% 1.3% 0.6%
BYU 40.9% 4.4% 38.7% 23.6% 10.4% 4.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%
Oklahoma 35.2% 3.7% 33.4% 20.2% 8.4% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Cincinnati 34.7% 4.5% 32.5% 19.3% 8.3% 3.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Oklahoma St. 33.7% 3.8% 31.8% 19.1% 8.1% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
West Virginia 32.8% 4.2% 30.7% 17.9% 7.0% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Central Florida 18.7% 3.0% 17.2% 9.1% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.4 0.1 0.9 5.5 17.6 29.8 27.5 14.1 4.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.1 0.0 0.1 1.5 7.9 21.0 31.4 24.4 10.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.1 0.0 0.2 1.9 8.9 21.4 29.9 23.6 10.8 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.6% 2.8 1.4 11.2 27.5 32.8 19.1 6.7 1.2 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 86.6% 1.5 13.4 37.4 33.9 13.0 2.2 0.2 0.0
Final Four 63.2% 0.8 36.8 46.2 15.4 1.6 0.1
Final Game 39.6% 0.4 60.4 35.9 3.7
Champion 22.9% 0.2 77.1 22.9