Preseason Rankings
Iowa St.
Big 12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#40
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.0#326
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#101
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.5% 4.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 11.7% 11.8% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 20.7% 20.8% 2.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.0% 47.3% 13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.2% 44.5% 12.5%
Average Seed 6.8 6.8 9.0
.500 or above 82.7% 83.0% 47.9%
.500 or above in Conference 49.7% 50.0% 15.6%
Conference Champion 4.4% 4.5% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 8.2% 23.4%
First Four4.8% 4.8% 3.8%
First Round44.6% 44.9% 10.5%
Second Round28.5% 28.7% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen13.3% 13.4% 0.6%
Elite Eight6.2% 6.2% 0.5%
Final Four2.8% 2.8% 0.4%
Championship Game1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 7
Quad 24 - 28 - 10
Quad 33 - 110 - 11
Quad 48 - 018 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 340   Green Bay W 76-51 99%    
  Nov 09, 2023 356   Lindenwood W 80-52 99%    
  Nov 12, 2023 290   Idaho St. W 73-52 97%    
  Nov 19, 2023 253   Grambling St. W 71-52 96%    
  Nov 23, 2023 82   Virginia Commonwealth W 66-61 66%    
  Dec 01, 2023 109   @ DePaul W 69-65 64%    
  Dec 07, 2023 42   Iowa W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 10, 2023 326   Prairie View W 75-51 98%    
  Dec 17, 2023 343   Florida A&M W 73-47 99%    
  Dec 21, 2023 332   Eastern Illinois W 77-53 98%    
  Dec 31, 2023 288   New Hampshire W 71-50 96%    
  Jan 06, 2024 53   @ Oklahoma L 62-63 45%    
  Jan 09, 2024 4   Houston L 59-62 40%    
  Jan 13, 2024 59   Oklahoma St. W 66-61 66%    
  Jan 16, 2024 50   @ BYU L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 20, 2024 24   @ TCU L 64-69 35%    
  Jan 24, 2024 32   Kansas St. W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 27, 2024 1   Kansas L 64-69 33%    
  Feb 03, 2024 14   @ Baylor L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 06, 2024 15   @ Texas L 63-69 30%    
  Feb 10, 2024 24   TCU W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 13, 2024 58   @ Cincinnati L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 17, 2024 41   Texas Tech W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 19, 2024 4   @ Houston L 56-65 23%    
  Feb 24, 2024 63   West Virginia W 70-64 67%    
  Feb 28, 2024 53   Oklahoma W 65-60 64%    
  Mar 02, 2024 81   @ Central Florida W 62-61 54%    
  Mar 06, 2024 50   BYU W 69-65 64%    
  Mar 09, 2024 32   @ Kansas St. L 65-69 38%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.5 2.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 7.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.6 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.5 3.3 3.7 0.9 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.4 1.3 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.5 2.3 0.1 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.7 0.9 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.7 1.4 0.1 7.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.8 14th
Total 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.7 7.2 9.4 10.4 11.4 11.5 10.2 9.1 7.1 5.0 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 91.0% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 65.4% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 34.1% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 10.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.0% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 2.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.5% 99.9% 13.8% 86.1% 3.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 5.0% 99.7% 9.8% 90.0% 4.3 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 7.1% 98.5% 8.5% 90.0% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
11-7 9.1% 93.9% 6.5% 87.4% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 93.4%
10-8 10.2% 81.5% 6.2% 75.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.9 80.3%
9-9 11.5% 60.0% 3.9% 56.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.6 58.3%
8-10 11.4% 27.7% 4.0% 23.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.3 24.7%
7-11 10.4% 8.1% 2.8% 5.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.6 5.5%
6-12 9.4% 2.2% 1.8% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.4%
5-13 7.2% 1.4% 1.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1
4-14 5.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
3-15 3.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.3
2-16 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.8
1-17 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 47.0% 5.0% 42.0% 6.8 1.8 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.4 4.6 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.3 3.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 53.0 44.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 76.1 23.9