IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-12.0	#346
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.8	#58
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.3	#341

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.6	#335

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.8%	7.0%	1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.6	15.8

.500 or above	11.2%	36.6%	10.9%
.500 or above in Conference	38.1%	60.0%	37.9%
Conference Champion	2.7%	6.8%	2.7%
Last Place in Conference	11.9%	3.5%	11.9%

First Four	1.1%	2.7%	1.1%
First Round	1.2%	5.1%	1.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 1.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	0 - 3	0 - 9
Quad 4	8 - 10	9 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	52	@ Missouri	L	65-90	1%
Nov 13, 2023	336	@ Central Arkansas	L	78-82	35%
Nov 18, 2023	348	Incarnate Word	W	74-71	62%
Nov 18, 2023	113	@ Minnesota	L	61-80	5%
Nov 24, 2023	234	@ Ball St.	L	69-80	16%
Nov 30, 2023	53	@ Oklahoma	L	58-82	2%
Dec 05, 2023	10	@ Gonzaga	L	64-94	0.4%
Dec 09, 2023	6	@ Connecticut	L	57-89	0.3%
Dec 12, 2023	145	@ South Florida	L	65-82	8%
Jan 06, 2024	338	Alabama A&M	W	73-71	57%
Jan 06, 2024	353	Alabama St.	W	73-69	63%
Jan 13, 2024	222	@ Texas Southern	L	68-80	15%
Jan 15, 2024	326	@ Prairie View	L	69-74	33%
Jan 20, 2024	343	Florida A&M	W	69-66	59%
Jan 22, 2024	349	Bethune-Cookman	W	76-73	61%
Jan 27, 2024	321	@ Southern	L	72-78	31%
Jan 29, 2024	253	@ Grambling St.	L	64-74	20%
Feb 03, 2024	361	@ Mississippi Valley	W	72-69	59%
Feb 10, 2024	281	Alcorn St.	L	72-74	43%
Feb 12, 2024	245	Jackson St.	L	71-75	35%
Feb 17, 2024	353	@ Alabama St.	L	70-72	43%
Feb 19, 2024	338	@ Alabama A&M	L	70-74	37%
Feb 24, 2024	326	Prairie View	W	72-71	52%
Feb 26, 2024	222	Texas Southern	L	71-77	31%
Mar 02, 2024	361	Mississippi Valley	W	75-66	77%
Mar 07, 2024	245	@ Jackson St.	L	68-78	20%
Mar 09, 2024	281	@ Alcorn St.	L	69-77	25%
Projected Record						9 - 18	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0		2.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.0	1.6	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.0			4.2	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	1.6	2.3	1.0	0.2	0.0					5.5	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.2	3.1	1.3	0.2	0.0						7.3	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	2.5	3.9	1.5	0.2								8.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.6	4.6	2.2	0.2	0.0								9.9	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	2.5	4.9	2.6	0.3	0.0									10.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	2.4	5.2	3.2	0.4	0.0										11.4	8th
9th				0.0	0.4	2.4	4.8	3.4	0.6	0.0											11.7	9th
10th			0.0	0.5	2.3	4.6	3.2	0.7	0.0												11.2	10th
11th		0.1	0.8	2.6	3.6	2.4	0.5	0.0													10.0	11th
12th	0.3	1.1	2.1	2.1	1.1	0.3	0.0														7.1	12th

Total	0.3	1.2	2.9	5.2	7.4	10.0	11.1	12.0	11.7	10.6	8.9	6.8	4.9	3.4	1.9	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	99.6%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	88.9%	0.3		0.3	0.0
15-3	72.7%	0.7		0.5	0.2	0.0
14-4	43.1%	0.8		0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-5	16.0%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0					0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.7%	2.7		1.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		41.9%	41.9%		14.4														0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
17-1	0.1%		43.0%	43.0%		14.6														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
16-2	0.4%		39.0%	39.0%		15.2															0.0	0.1	0.0	0.2
15-3	1.0%		26.9%	26.9%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7
14-4	1.9%		15.7%	15.7%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.2	1.6
13-5	3.4%		9.8%	9.8%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	3.0
12-6	4.9%		5.6%	5.6%		16.0																0.0	0.3	4.7
11-7	6.8%		2.7%	2.7%		16.0																0.0	0.2	6.7
10-8	8.9%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.1	8.8
9-9	10.6%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	10.5
8-10	11.7%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.6
7-11	12.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.0
6-12	11.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.1
5-13	10.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.0
4-14	7.4%																							7.4
3-15	5.2%																							5.2
2-16	2.9%																							2.9
1-17	1.2%																							1.2
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		1.8%	1.8%	0.0%	15.8														0.0	0.1	0.3	1.5	98.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%