Preseason Rankings
Connecticut
Big East
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.6#6
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.4#189
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.4% 4.4% 1.3%
#1 Seed 16.0% 16.2% 3.9%
Top 2 Seed 29.5% 29.8% 8.1%
Top 4 Seed 50.3% 50.8% 19.8%
Top 6 Seed 65.3% 65.8% 34.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.6% 86.9% 63.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.0% 83.4% 57.0%
Average Seed 4.4 4.4 6.3
.500 or above 96.9% 97.1% 83.2%
.500 or above in Conference 91.0% 91.2% 76.3%
Conference Champion 32.2% 32.5% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 2.2%
First Four2.4% 2.3% 4.2%
First Round85.5% 85.8% 62.1%
Second Round69.5% 69.9% 41.6%
Sweet Sixteen44.2% 44.6% 19.5%
Elite Eight26.0% 26.2% 9.5%
Final Four14.5% 14.7% 4.0%
Championship Game8.1% 8.2% 1.5%
National Champion4.3% 4.4% 0.7%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 6
Quad 25 - 112 - 8
Quad 34 - 016 - 8
Quad 46 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 231   Northern Arizona W 84-61 98%    
  Nov 11, 2023 350   Stonehill W 86-54 99.8%   
  Nov 14, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 88-51 100.0%   
  Nov 19, 2023 39   Indiana W 74-68 70%    
  Nov 24, 2023 325   Manhattan W 84-55 99%    
  Nov 27, 2023 288   New Hampshire W 79-53 99%    
  Dec 01, 2023 1   @ Kansas L 70-76 31%    
  Dec 05, 2023 16   North Carolina W 75-72 59%    
  Dec 09, 2023 346   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 89-57 99.7%   
  Dec 15, 2023 10   Gonzaga W 78-77 54%    
  Dec 20, 2023 66   @ Seton Hall W 71-66 68%    
  Dec 23, 2023 44   St. John's W 83-74 78%    
  Jan 02, 2024 109   DePaul W 81-65 91%    
  Jan 05, 2024 88   @ Butler W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 10, 2024 43   @ Xavier W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 14, 2024 106   Georgetown W 82-66 90%    
  Jan 17, 2024 8   Creighton W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 20, 2024 20   @ Villanova W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 28, 2024 43   Xavier W 80-71 77%    
  Jan 31, 2024 46   Providence W 76-66 79%    
  Feb 03, 2024 44   @ St. John's W 80-77 61%    
  Feb 06, 2024 88   Butler W 75-61 87%    
  Feb 10, 2024 106   @ Georgetown W 79-69 78%    
  Feb 14, 2024 109   @ DePaul W 78-68 79%    
  Feb 17, 2024 9   Marquette W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 20, 2024 8   @ Creighton L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 24, 2024 20   Villanova W 71-65 70%    
  Mar 03, 2024 66   Seton Hall W 74-63 82%    
  Mar 06, 2024 9   @ Marquette L 73-75 43%    
  Mar 09, 2024 46   @ Providence W 73-69 61%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 6.7 8.1 7.1 4.3 1.4 32.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.0 6.8 4.7 1.9 0.3 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.8 4.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.3 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.6 5.5 6.9 8.8 10.5 12.1 12.2 11.9 10.1 7.4 4.3 1.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
19-1 100.0% 4.3    4.2 0.1
18-2 96.1% 7.1    6.4 0.7
17-3 80.6% 8.1    6.1 1.8 0.1
16-4 56.5% 6.7    3.8 2.5 0.4 0.0
15-5 26.8% 3.3    1.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.6% 1.2    0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.2% 32.2 23.4 7.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.4% 100.0% 55.6% 44.4% 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 4.3% 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% 1.2 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 7.4% 100.0% 39.8% 60.2% 1.4 4.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.1% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 1.9 3.8 3.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.9% 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 2.7 2.1 3.7 3.3 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.2% 100.0% 22.3% 77.6% 3.7 0.7 1.9 3.3 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 12.1% 99.1% 17.5% 81.6% 4.9 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
13-7 10.5% 96.9% 14.8% 82.1% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.4%
12-8 8.8% 89.6% 11.6% 78.0% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 88.2%
11-9 6.9% 74.7% 8.9% 65.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.8 72.2%
10-10 5.5% 54.6% 8.1% 46.5% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5 50.6%
9-11 3.6% 24.3% 5.9% 18.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 19.6%
8-12 2.4% 8.2% 4.4% 3.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 4.0%
7-13 1.5% 4.3% 3.7% 0.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.6%
6-14 0.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 86.6% 21.1% 65.5% 4.4 16.0 13.5 11.2 9.6 8.1 6.9 6.0 5.1 4.0 3.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.4 83.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 88.5 11.5