Preseason Rankings
Big East
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Connecticut 86.6%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +16.6      +8.6 11 +7.9 15 67.4 189 0.0 1 0.0 1
8 Creighton 86.3%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +15.9      +8.7 10 +7.2 18 69.2 149 0.0 1 0.0 1
9 Marquette 84.0%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 7 +15.6      +9.6 5 +6.0 33 70.4 121 0.0 1 0.0 1
20 Villanova 68.5%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 8 +13.2      +7.1 21 +6.1 32 61.4 334 0.0 1 0.0 1
43 Xavier 49.6%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +10.6      +6.9 24 +3.7 73 75.0 35 0.0 1 0.0 1
44 St. John's 47.5%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 10 +10.3      +6.7 29 +3.7 74 81.3 1 0.0 1 0.0 1
46 Providence 44.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +10.0      +5.9 35 +4.1 64 67.3 199 0.0 1 0.0 1
66 Seton Hall 30.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +8.1      +2.6 98 +5.5 40 66.3 220 0.0 1 0.0 1
88 Butler 16.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 13 +5.7      +1.3 137 +4.4 61 64.9 269 0.0 1 0.0 1
106 Georgetown 9.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 6 - 14 +4.0      +3.6 75 +0.5 159 71.4 95 0.0 1 0.0 1
109 DePaul 9.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 14 +3.8      +2.9 93 +0.8 144 71.0 106 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 3.0 32.2 20.9 14.9 11.1 7.9 5.1 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2
Creighton 3.2 27.6 20.7 15.3 12.0 8.6 6.1 4.3 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3
Marquette 3.3 25.7 20.2 15.8 12.2 9.0 6.8 4.3 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4
Villanova 4.4 13.8 14.6 14.5 13.5 12.1 10.1 8.2 5.9 4.0 2.2 1.1
Xavier 5.6 6.3 8.4 10.7 11.7 12.6 12.3 11.6 9.8 7.5 5.9 3.1
St. John's 5.7 5.7 8.2 9.8 11.5 12.5 12.6 11.7 10.1 8.5 6.1 3.4
Providence 5.8 5.2 7.3 9.4 11.5 12.7 12.4 12.0 11.1 8.6 6.3 3.5
Seton Hall 6.7 2.7 4.7 6.8 8.5 10.5 12.2 13.4 13.3 12.0 9.6 6.3
Butler 7.9 1.0 2.0 3.3 5.0 6.9 8.9 11.5 13.9 16.3 16.7 14.6
Georgetown 8.6 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.3 4.5 6.7 9.5 12.3 16.5 20.7 23.2
DePaul 8.8 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.9 5.9 8.5 11.8 16.4 22.0 26.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.6 5.5 6.9 8.8 10.5 12.1 12.2 11.9 10.1 7.4 4.3 1.4
Creighton 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.0 4.3 6.0 7.7 9.5 10.8 12.2 11.7 11.3 8.7 6.2 3.1 1.3
Marquette 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.0 4.6 6.5 8.0 9.8 11.2 12.1 11.6 10.4 8.7 5.7 3.1 0.8
Villanova 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 2.9 4.5 6.3 7.8 9.2 10.5 10.8 10.9 9.8 8.8 6.6 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.2
Xavier 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.5 5.9 7.6 9.3 10.1 10.8 10.4 9.8 8.2 6.7 4.9 3.1 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1
St. John's 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.1 4.8 6.3 8.2 9.4 10.2 10.6 10.3 9.3 7.8 6.5 4.6 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
Providence 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.3 9.9 10.6 10.7 10.5 9.3 7.5 5.9 4.0 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.0
Seton Hall 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.1 5.2 7.4 9.1 10.4 11.1 10.7 10.1 8.7 7.1 5.4 4.0 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Butler 7 - 13 0.7 2.4 4.7 7.2 9.7 11.0 11.7 11.0 10.4 8.7 7.1 5.5 4.0 2.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 6 - 14 1.5 4.4 7.9 10.1 12.1 12.0 12.1 10.5 8.7 6.9 4.9 3.6 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
DePaul 6 - 14 1.9 5.1 8.7 11.4 12.9 12.7 11.4 10.5 8.1 5.8 4.3 2.8 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 32.2% 23.4 7.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Creighton 27.6% 19.4 6.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Marquette 25.7% 18.0 6.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Villanova 13.8% 8.8 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
Xavier 6.3% 3.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. John's 5.7% 3.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Providence 5.2% 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 2.7% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Butler 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 0.5% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
DePaul 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 86.6% 21.1% 65.5% 2   16.0 13.5 11.2 9.6 8.1 6.9 6.0 5.1 4.0 3.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.4 83.0%
Creighton 86.3% 18.8% 67.6% 2   15.6 13.7 11.3 9.5 8.0 7.0 6.1 5.0 3.9 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.7 83.2%
Marquette 84.0% 18.0% 66.0% 3   14.0 12.7 11.1 9.2 8.3 7.0 6.1 5.0 3.9 3.6 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 16.0 80.5%
Villanova 68.5% 12.0% 56.5% 5   6.2 7.4 7.7 7.3 7.2 6.9 6.4 5.6 4.6 4.4 3.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 31.5 64.2%
Xavier 49.6% 7.0% 42.6% 9   2.1 3.0 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 50.4 45.8%
St. John's 47.5% 7.0% 40.5% 11   1.9 2.6 3.6 4.1 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.1 3.9 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 52.5 43.5%
Providence 44.9% 6.4% 38.5% 1.4 2.3 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.2 4.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 55.1 41.1%
Seton Hall 30.1% 4.0% 26.1% 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.9 4.2 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 69.9 27.2%
Butler 16.6% 2.6% 14.0% 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 83.4 14.4%
Georgetown 9.2% 1.6% 7.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 90.8 7.7%
DePaul 9.1% 1.4% 7.7% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 90.9 7.8%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 86.6% 2.4% 85.5% 69.5% 44.2% 26.0% 14.5% 8.1% 4.3%
Creighton 86.3% 2.6% 85.1% 67.8% 42.2% 23.7% 12.8% 7.0% 3.7%
Marquette 84.0% 2.9% 82.7% 65.1% 40.0% 22.5% 11.8% 6.3% 3.3%
Villanova 68.5% 4.2% 66.6% 47.9% 25.8% 12.8% 6.3% 3.1% 1.4%
Xavier 49.6% 5.0% 47.2% 30.2% 13.9% 6.1% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5%
St. John's 47.5% 4.7% 45.3% 28.2% 12.6% 5.6% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Providence 44.9% 4.8% 42.5% 26.0% 11.6% 5.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4%
Seton Hall 30.1% 3.9% 28.2% 15.7% 6.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Butler 16.6% 3.1% 15.0% 7.6% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Georgetown 9.2% 1.9% 8.2% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 9.1% 2.0% 8.1% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.3 0.0 0.3 3.7 17.6 35.0 30.3 11.2 1.8 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.1 0.0 0.4 5.2 21.4 36.3 26.9 8.5 1.1 0.1
2nd Round 99.9% 3.7 0.1 2.2 12.5 29.6 33.4 17.5 4.2 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 94.1% 2.0 5.9 26.0 37.1 23.5 6.6 0.9 0.0
Elite Eight 72.6% 1.1 27.4 44.5 23.1 4.7 0.4 0.0
Final Four 46.2% 0.5 53.8 38.4 7.3 0.4 0.0
Final Game 26.7% 0.3 73.3 25.2 1.5
Champion 14.2% 0.1 85.8 14.2