Preseason Rankings
Creighton
Big East
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.9#8
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.2#149
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#10
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#18
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.2% 4.2% 2.1%
#1 Seed 15.6% 15.6% 4.5%
Top 2 Seed 29.3% 29.3% 5.3%
Top 4 Seed 50.1% 50.2% 12.1%
Top 6 Seed 65.1% 65.2% 22.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.3% 86.4% 68.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.2% 83.2% 64.5%
Average Seed 4.4 4.4 7.4
.500 or above 95.3% 95.3% 83.2%
.500 or above in Conference 88.6% 88.6% 78.2%
Conference Champion 27.6% 27.6% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
First Four2.6% 2.6% 7.1%
First Round85.1% 85.2% 65.3%
Second Round67.8% 67.9% 34.2%
Sweet Sixteen42.2% 42.3% 15.5%
Elite Eight23.7% 23.8% 8.9%
Final Four12.8% 12.8% 0.5%
Championship Game7.0% 7.0% 0.5%
National Champion3.7% 3.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 6
Quad 26 - 212 - 8
Quad 35 - 118 - 8
Quad 44 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 343   Florida A&M W 82-51 99.8%   
  Nov 11, 2023 201   North Dakota St. W 84-63 97%    
  Nov 14, 2023 42   Iowa W 83-75 77%    
  Nov 18, 2023 222   Texas Southern W 84-62 98%    
  Nov 22, 2023 96   Loyola Chicago W 76-65 83%    
  Nov 30, 2023 59   @ Oklahoma St. W 72-68 63%    
  Dec 03, 2023 67   @ Nebraska W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 09, 2023 323   Central Michigan W 86-58 99%    
  Dec 13, 2023 91   @ UNLV W 79-72 74%    
  Dec 16, 2023 12   Alabama W 81-77 63%    
  Dec 20, 2023 20   Villanova W 72-66 69%    
  Dec 30, 2023 9   @ Marquette L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 02, 2024 106   @ Georgetown W 80-71 77%    
  Jan 06, 2024 46   Providence W 77-68 77%    
  Jan 09, 2024 109   @ DePaul W 79-70 78%    
  Jan 13, 2024 44   St. John's W 85-76 77%    
  Jan 17, 2024 6   @ Connecticut L 70-74 38%    
  Jan 20, 2024 66   @ Seton Hall W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 23, 2024 43   Xavier W 81-73 76%    
  Jan 27, 2024 109   DePaul W 82-67 89%    
  Feb 02, 2024 88   Butler W 75-62 86%    
  Feb 07, 2024 46   @ Providence W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 10, 2024 43   @ Xavier W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 13, 2024 106   Georgetown W 83-68 89%    
  Feb 17, 2024 88   @ Butler W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 20, 2024 6   Connecticut W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 25, 2024 44   @ St. John's W 82-79 59%    
  Feb 28, 2024 66   Seton Hall W 75-64 81%    
  Mar 02, 2024 9   Marquette W 77-74 61%    
  Mar 09, 2024 20   @ Villanova L 68-69 50%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 6.1 7.0 6.0 3.1 1.3 27.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.2 6.5 4.7 1.7 0.3 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.9 4.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.4 4.5 3.3 1.1 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.4 1.3 0.2 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.1 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.0 4.3 6.0 7.7 9.5 10.8 12.2 11.7 11.3 8.7 6.2 3.1 1.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
19-1 100.0% 3.1    3.1 0.1
18-2 95.6% 6.0    5.3 0.6 0.0
17-3 80.0% 7.0    5.2 1.7 0.1
16-4 54.0% 6.1    3.4 2.3 0.4 0.0
15-5 25.3% 3.0    1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1
14-6 9.0% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.6% 27.6 19.4 6.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.3% 100.0% 53.4% 46.6% 1.1 1.1 0.1 100.0%
19-1 3.1% 100.0% 45.0% 55.0% 1.2 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.2% 100.0% 37.1% 62.9% 1.4 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 8.7% 100.0% 31.3% 68.7% 1.8 3.9 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.3% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 2.4 2.8 4.0 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.7% 99.9% 19.9% 80.0% 3.3 1.0 2.6 3.5 2.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 12.2% 99.4% 16.9% 82.5% 4.5 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.0 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
13-7 10.8% 98.3% 14.5% 83.8% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.0%
12-8 9.5% 93.3% 11.2% 82.1% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 92.5%
11-9 7.7% 83.4% 9.1% 74.3% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.3 81.7%
10-10 6.0% 63.9% 7.0% 56.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 61.2%
9-11 4.3% 34.6% 5.9% 28.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 30.5%
8-12 3.0% 13.7% 5.1% 8.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 9.1%
7-13 1.9% 5.2% 3.8% 1.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.5%
6-14 1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.6% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 86.3% 18.8% 67.6% 4.4 15.6 13.7 11.3 9.5 8.0 7.0 6.1 5.0 3.9 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.7 83.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 91.9 8.1