Preseason Rankings
Loyola Chicago
Atlantic 10
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#96
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#250
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#125
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#88
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 2.0% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 4.2% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 23.2% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.2% 10.5% 2.4%
Average Seed 10.7 9.7 11.4
.500 or above 82.7% 94.3% 79.1%
.500 or above in Conference 73.2% 84.3% 69.8%
Conference Champion 13.4% 21.8% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 1.0% 3.0%
First Four1.7% 3.0% 1.3%
First Round12.5% 21.7% 9.7%
Second Round4.4% 9.4% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 3.6% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.6% 1.5% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Neutral) - 23.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 36 - 48 - 9
Quad 410 - 119 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 25   Florida Atlantic L 66-74 23%    
  Nov 11, 2023 332   Eastern Illinois W 78-60 95%    
  Nov 14, 2023 244   Illinois-Chicago W 77-64 87%    
  Nov 18, 2023 299   New Orleans W 82-67 92%    
  Nov 22, 2023 8   Creighton L 65-76 17%    
  Nov 28, 2023 324   Chicago St. W 76-59 94%    
  Dec 02, 2023 219   Harvard W 71-60 82%    
  Dec 05, 2023 233   @ Tulsa W 73-67 68%    
  Dec 17, 2023 145   @ South Florida W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 19, 2023 328   Charleston Southern W 78-60 94%    
  Dec 30, 2023 323   Central Michigan W 77-60 93%    
  Jan 03, 2024 102   @ Saint Louis L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 06, 2024 94   Duquesne W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 09, 2024 129   Richmond W 69-63 68%    
  Jan 13, 2024 136   @ Saint Joseph's L 70-71 50%    
  Jan 17, 2024 192   Massachusetts W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 20, 2024 162   @ Fordham W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 23, 2024 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-70 36%    
  Jan 30, 2024 102   Saint Louis W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 04, 2024 149   Davidson W 70-63 71%    
  Feb 07, 2024 139   @ George Mason W 67-66 50%    
  Feb 10, 2024 238   @ George Washington W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 14, 2024 136   Saint Joseph's W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 18, 2024 190   @ Rhode Island W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 24, 2024 139   George Mason W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 27, 2024 78   @ St. Bonaventure L 64-69 35%    
  Mar 01, 2024 72   Dayton W 63-62 52%    
  Mar 06, 2024 149   @ Davidson W 67-66 53%    
  Mar 09, 2024 199   La Salle W 74-65 78%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.1 3.8 3.1 1.6 0.4 13.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 4.3 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 4.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.0 3.8 1.0 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.4 2.9 4.0 1.1 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.3 1.8 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.4 2.3 0.2 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 3.2 1.0 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.7 0.1 4.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.3 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.0 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.6 9.8 10.9 11.6 11.4 10.1 8.1 5.7 3.5 1.7 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 98.7% 1.6    1.5 0.1 0.0
16-2 90.0% 3.1    2.5 0.7 0.0
15-3 66.7% 3.8    2.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 38.5% 3.1    1.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.1% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 8.2 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 96.9% 43.5% 53.3% 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.4%
17-1 1.7% 83.3% 37.6% 45.6% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 73.1%
16-2 3.5% 62.5% 29.3% 33.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 46.9%
15-3 5.7% 40.5% 22.6% 17.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.4 23.1%
14-4 8.1% 24.0% 18.0% 6.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.1 7.3%
13-5 10.1% 15.5% 14.2% 1.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 8.5 1.6%
12-6 11.4% 9.7% 9.5% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.3 0.3%
11-7 11.6% 7.6% 7.6% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.7
10-8 10.9% 5.0% 5.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.3
9-9 9.8% 4.1% 4.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.4
8-10 8.6% 3.9% 3.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.3
7-11 6.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.5
6-12 4.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.8
5-13 3.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-14 2.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.3% 9.5% 3.8% 10.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.2 3.1 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 86.7 4.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.4 43.1 16.4 9.5 23.3 0.9 6.9