Preseason Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#72
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.1#351
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#105
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.4% 2.5% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 4.7% 5.0% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.9% 27.0% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.8% 12.5% 3.4%
Average Seed 9.5 9.5 11.1
.500 or above 86.0% 87.7% 63.1%
.500 or above in Conference 83.4% 84.7% 66.8%
Conference Champion 22.2% 23.1% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.9% 2.7%
First Four3.3% 3.4% 2.0%
First Round24.3% 25.3% 9.9%
Second Round11.0% 11.6% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen4.2% 4.4% 1.4%
Elite Eight1.7% 1.7% 0.5%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 93.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 34 - 6
Quad 37 - 310 - 9
Quad 49 - 119 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 259   SIU Edwardsville W 74-58 93%    
  Nov 10, 2023 47   @ Northwestern L 58-64 30%    
  Nov 16, 2023 56   LSU L 62-64 43%    
  Nov 24, 2023 212   Youngstown St. W 75-62 87%    
  Nov 29, 2023 101   @ SMU W 67-66 50%    
  Dec 02, 2023 253   Grambling St. W 69-54 91%    
  Dec 06, 2023 91   UNLV W 70-65 66%    
  Dec 09, 2023 218   Troy W 70-57 87%    
  Dec 16, 2023 58   @ Cincinnati L 63-68 34%    
  Dec 20, 2023 256   Oakland W 75-59 91%    
  Dec 30, 2023 213   Longwood W 69-56 86%    
  Jan 03, 2024 149   @ Davidson W 64-61 61%    
  Jan 07, 2024 192   Massachusetts W 74-62 83%    
  Jan 12, 2024 94   @ Duquesne L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 16, 2024 102   Saint Louis W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 20, 2024 190   Rhode Island W 68-57 83%    
  Jan 23, 2024 199   @ La Salle W 68-62 68%    
  Jan 27, 2024 129   @ Richmond W 63-61 57%    
  Jan 30, 2024 238   George Washington W 75-61 88%    
  Feb 02, 2024 78   St. Bonaventure W 64-60 61%    
  Feb 06, 2024 136   @ Saint Joseph's W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 09, 2024 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 62-64 43%    
  Feb 13, 2024 94   Duquesne W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 17, 2024 162   Fordham W 69-59 79%    
  Feb 21, 2024 139   @ George Mason W 64-61 58%    
  Feb 27, 2024 149   Davidson W 67-58 77%    
  Mar 01, 2024 96   @ Loyola Chicago L 62-63 48%    
  Mar 05, 2024 102   @ Saint Louis W 68-67 50%    
  Mar 08, 2024 82   Virginia Commonwealth W 65-61 63%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.4 6.2 5.7 3.2 0.9 22.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.3 5.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.9 4.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.0 1.0 0.1 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.7 1.5 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.1 0.9 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.8 4.7 5.9 8.0 10.0 11.5 12.5 11.9 10.7 8.5 6.2 3.2 0.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 99.7% 3.2    3.1 0.1 0.0
16-2 91.7% 5.7    4.7 1.0 0.0
15-3 72.5% 6.2    3.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 41.3% 4.4    1.6 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.9% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.2% 22.2 14.4 5.7 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 98.0% 53.0% 45.0% 3.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.6%
17-1 3.2% 90.9% 43.9% 47.0% 5.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 83.7%
16-2 6.2% 77.9% 36.3% 41.6% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.4 65.3%
15-3 8.5% 60.2% 30.3% 29.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.4 42.9%
14-4 10.7% 40.8% 24.2% 16.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.3 21.9%
13-5 11.9% 25.0% 18.4% 6.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.9 8.2%
12-6 12.5% 14.4% 12.7% 1.7% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 10.7 1.9%
11-7 11.5% 10.9% 10.4% 0.5% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.3 0.5%
10-8 10.0% 7.4% 7.3% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.2 0.1%
9-9 8.0% 5.6% 5.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.6
8-10 5.9% 4.8% 4.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.6
7-11 4.7% 2.9% 2.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.6
6-12 2.8% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.9% 16.0% 9.9% 9.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.2 3.4 6.2 4.1 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 74.1 11.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.8 45.6 33.8 17.4 3.3