Preseason Rankings
SMU
American Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#101
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.4#68
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#126
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#99
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.0% 10.5% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.0% 5.3% 1.1%
Average Seed 10.2 10.1 12.0
.500 or above 63.8% 66.2% 29.9%
.500 or above in Conference 57.1% 58.7% 34.1%
Conference Champion 4.5% 4.8% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 3.8% 9.4%
First Four1.9% 2.0% 0.9%
First Round9.1% 9.5% 2.5%
Second Round3.5% 3.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 93.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 22 - 43 - 9
Quad 35 - 38 - 12
Quad 48 - 116 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 317   Western Illinois W 80-64 94%    
  Nov 09, 2023 341   Lamar W 80-61 96%    
  Nov 14, 2023 22   Texas A&M L 68-74 30%    
  Nov 20, 2023 63   West Virginia L 73-77 36%    
  Nov 26, 2023 287   Louisiana Monroe W 77-63 90%    
  Nov 29, 2023 72   Dayton L 66-67 50%    
  Dec 03, 2023 291   Texas A&M - Commerce W 78-64 89%    
  Dec 06, 2023 65   @ Arizona St. L 69-76 28%    
  Dec 16, 2023 85   @ Florida St. L 73-78 34%    
  Dec 19, 2023 360   Houston Christian W 90-68 97%    
  Dec 22, 2023 154   @ Murray St. W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 02, 2024 156   Charlotte W 68-61 71%    
  Jan 07, 2024 27   @ Memphis L 73-84 17%    
  Jan 13, 2024 146   @ East Carolina L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 16, 2024 138   Temple W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 20, 2024 233   Tulsa W 79-68 82%    
  Jan 25, 2024 90   @ North Texas L 58-62 36%    
  Jan 28, 2024 95   @ Wichita St. L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 01, 2024 99   Tulane W 82-79 59%    
  Feb 04, 2024 77   UAB W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 07, 2024 178   @ Rice W 79-77 55%    
  Feb 11, 2024 90   North Texas W 61-59 56%    
  Feb 15, 2024 99   @ Tulane L 79-82 39%    
  Feb 18, 2024 27   Memphis L 76-81 34%    
  Feb 22, 2024 25   @ Florida Atlantic L 69-80 17%    
  Feb 25, 2024 145   @ South Florida L 72-73 49%    
  Mar 02, 2024 249   Texas San Antonio W 82-70 84%    
  Mar 06, 2024 146   East Carolina W 75-69 68%    
  Mar 10, 2024 77   @ UAB L 74-80 33%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 4.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.6 2.5 0.7 0.1 8.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.4 0.7 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.4 1.1 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 4.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.5 2.4 0.2 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.5 0.8 0.0 7.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.3 1.1 0.1 6.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 1.2 0.1 5.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.9 5.6 8.3 10.2 11.3 12.1 11.9 10.2 8.3 6.4 4.2 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.4% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 84.6% 1.0    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 58.0% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1
14-4 28.9% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 6.7% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 44.0% 56.0% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 92.1% 34.3% 57.8% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.0%
16-2 1.1% 88.5% 26.6% 62.0% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 84.4%
15-3 2.5% 66.7% 22.7% 44.0% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 56.9%
14-4 4.2% 45.2% 14.4% 30.8% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 36.0%
13-5 6.4% 24.7% 11.3% 13.4% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.8 15.1%
12-6 8.3% 13.2% 8.5% 4.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.2 5.2%
11-7 10.2% 7.1% 5.9% 1.2% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.5 1.3%
10-8 11.9% 5.6% 5.5% 0.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.2 0.2%
9-9 12.1% 3.0% 2.9% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.7 0.1%
8-10 11.3% 2.2% 2.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.1
7-11 10.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.0
6-12 8.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.2
5-13 5.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.5
4-14 3.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-15 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-16 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.0% 5.3% 4.7% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 90.0 5.0%